Stanford Study Warns of Disease Resurgence Without Vaccines

Researchers model potential impact of drops in vaccination rates for polio, measles, rubella, and diphtheria

Apr. 12, 2026 at 1:07am

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An extreme close-up of the internal structures of vaccine technology, revealed through translucent X-ray photography, conceptually illustrating the scientific advancements that have protected public health.An X-ray view of the inner workings of vaccine technology, a reminder of the scientific breakthroughs that have saved millions of lives.Stanford Today

A new study by researchers at Stanford University has painted a grim picture of what could happen if vaccination rates for polio, measles, rubella, and diphtheria were to significantly decline or if the vaccines became unavailable. The model predicts dramatic increases in cases and deaths for these once-controlled diseases, underscoring the critical role vaccines play in protecting public health.

Why it matters

The study's findings are particularly concerning given the rise of vaccine hesitancy and the potential for vaccine mandates to be overturned. Without high vaccination rates, these devastating diseases could resurface, leading to widespread illness and death. The study serves as a wake-up call for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and the public to recognize the importance of maintaining robust immunization programs.

The details

The Stanford researchers, Mathew Kiang and Nathan Lo, developed a model to simulate the spread of polio, measles, rubella, and diphtheria based on current vaccination rates across the United States. Their findings are alarming - the model predicts a dramatic increase in cases and deaths for all four diseases if vaccination rates drop significantly or if the vaccines become unavailable. For example, the study estimates that if current measles vaccination rates were to drop by half, measles cases could skyrocket, leading to an average of 290,129 deaths over a 25-year period.

  • The Stanford study was published on April 11, 2026.

The players

Mathew Kiang

A researcher at Stanford University who co-authored the study on the potential impact of declining vaccination rates.

Nathan Lo

A researcher at Stanford University who co-authored the study on the potential impact of declining vaccination rates.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

A figure who has a history of promoting anti-vaccine sentiments and has raised questions about the future of America's immunization system.

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What they’re saying

“The study's findings are a stark reminder of the critical role vaccines play in preventing devastating diseases and the potential for widespread suffering if immunization rates drop.”

— Mathew Kiang, Stanford Researcher

“Without vaccines, once-controlled diseases could resurface, leading to widespread illness and death.”

— Nathan Lo, Stanford Researcher

What’s next

Policymakers, healthcare professionals, and the public will need to work together to address vaccine hesitancy and ensure high vaccination rates to prevent the resurgence of these deadly diseases.

The takeaway

This study highlights the critical importance of maintaining high vaccination rates to protect public health and prevent the devastating return of once-controlled diseases. It serves as a wake-up call for all stakeholders to prioritize immunization programs and address the growing threat of vaccine hesitancy.