Global Warming Accelerating: Rate Doubled Since 2014, Study Finds

Latest research suggests the pace of global warming has significantly increased over the past decade.

Published on Mar. 7, 2026

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A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that the rate of global warming has more than doubled since 2015, raising concerns about breaching critical climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. The research shows the average warming rate was just under 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015, but has surged to approximately 0.35°C per decade over the last 10 years - the highest recorded since 1880.

Why it matters

The accelerated warming rate highlighted by the study increases the risk of reaching the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold within the next few years, which would have significant consequences like more extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and disruptions to ecosystems. This underscores the urgent need for rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate further warming.

The details

Researchers, including Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, isolated the human-driven warming trend by removing the influence of natural factors like El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar variations. This allowed them to reveal a clearer picture of the underlying warming signal. The primary driver of long-term warming is human activity - specifically, greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change.

  • Between 1970 and 2015, the average warming rate was just under 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade.
  • Over the last 10 years, the warming rate has surged to approximately 0.35°C (0.63°F) per decade.

The players

Stefan Rahmstorf

A researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research who co-authored the study.

Zeke Hausfather

A researcher at Berkeley Earth who expressed caution about the methods used to remove natural variability in the study.

Robert Lund

A statistician at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who also expressed reservations about definitively claiming an accelerated warming rate due to uncertainties in modeling atmospheric-ocean interactions.

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What they’re saying

“We need to turn into a lot faster in replacing fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas and leaving them behind altogether.”

— Stefan Rahmstorf

The takeaway

The accelerated warming rate highlighted by the study increases the risk of breaching the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold within the next few years, underscoring the urgent need for rapid and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate further warming.