California Gas Prices Surge Past $5 as Iran War Roils Oil Markets

Experts say relief may not come until global oil prices stabilize amid the ongoing conflict

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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Gas prices in California have skyrocketed over the past week, with the statewide average reaching $5.29 per gallon as of Tuesday. Experts say the surge is primarily driven by a spike in global crude oil prices amid the escalating war between the U.S. and Iran, which has threatened critical oil infrastructure and supply routes. The price hike is especially painful for Californians, who already pay some of the highest gas prices in the country due to limited refining capacity and higher taxes.

Why it matters

The gas price spike reflects the broader economic impacts of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has roiled global oil markets and threatens to drive up costs for consumers across the state. California's limited refining capacity and reliance on imported oil makes it particularly vulnerable to these types of global supply shocks, raising concerns about the state's energy security and the financial burden on residents.

The details

The average price of regular gasoline in California has risen by 62 cents over the past week and 80 cents over the past month, according to AAA data. Prices vary widely across the state, from a low of $4.67 in Modoc County to a high of $5.95 in Mono County. In the Bay Area, prices range from an average of $5.31 in Solano County to $5.56 in Napa County. Experts say the price surge is primarily driven by a spike in global crude oil prices, as the war with Iran threatens critical infrastructure and supply routes. Saudi Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, has warned of 'catastrophic consequences' if the conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint. U.S. officials have also threatened Iran over further disruptions to oil flows.

  • On Tuesday, March 10, 2026, the average price of regular gasoline in California reached $5.29 per gallon.
  • In April 2026, Valero plans to idle its refinery in Benicia, which produces 145,000 barrels of oil per day.

The players

Severin Borenstein

A professor at UC Berkeley with a concentration in economic analysis.

Amin Nasser

The CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world's top exporter of oil.

Pete Hegseth

The U.S. Defense Secretary.

Matt McClain

A petroleum analyst with GasBuddy.

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What they’re saying

“Whether California gets its oil from the Central Valley or Kuwait or Venezuela or other parts of the world, [it] doesn't matter. It still affects the price of gasoline the same because the price of all those oils goes up.”

— Severin Borenstein, Professor at UC Berkeley (SFGATE)

“If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be affected, there will be 'catastrophic consequences'.”

— Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco (Reuters)

“The information that we're seeing right in front of us lends to the idea that there's just no way we're going to see the prices begin to relax until something moves.”

— Matt McClain, Petroleum Analyst at GasBuddy (SFGATE)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This crisis highlights California's vulnerability to global oil market shocks due to its limited refining capacity and reliance on imported crude. Drivers can take steps to mitigate the impact, such as shopping around for the best prices and driving more efficiently, but ultimately relief may not come until the broader geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices stabilize.