Super Bowl Indicator Surprisingly Accurate for Stocks

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U.S. equity futures will open for trading on Sunday around half an hour before the Super Bowl LX matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. However, investors may want to wait until the final whistle before preparing for Monday's market open, as the Super Bowl indicator - a Wall Street folklore metric - has proven to be a surprisingly accurate predictor of stock market performance.

Why it matters

The Super Bowl indicator is a long-standing Wall Street tradition that suggests the stock market's performance for the year can be predicted by which team wins the Super Bowl. While often dismissed as superstition, the indicator has demonstrated an uncanny ability to forecast market trends, making it a metric that investors should not ignore.

The details

The Super Bowl indicator posits that if an original National Football League (NFL) team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will rise for the year. Conversely, if an American Football League (AFL) team wins, the market will decline. This indicator has correctly predicted the direction of the S&P 500 index in 40 out of the 55 Super Bowls played to date, a success rate of over 72%.

• U.S. equity futures will open for trading on Sunday, around half an hour before Super Bowl LX.
• Super Bowl LX will take place on February 9, 2026 in Santa Clara, California.

What’s next

Investors will be closely watching the outcome of Super Bowl LX to see if the Super Bowl indicator holds true for the 2026 stock market performance.