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Warming Climate Increases Avalanche Risk in Sierra Nevada
Studies show heavier, wetter snowfall and erratic storm patterns raise avalanche danger in California's mountain ranges.
Published on Feb. 26, 2026
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Research suggests that a warming climate is increasing the overall risk of avalanches at higher elevations in California's Sierra Nevada, as storms dump large amounts of heavy, wet snow that can overload and tumble down mountain slopes. Authorities have not pinpointed the precise cause of a recent deadly avalanche near Lake Tahoe, but point to a combination of heavy snow on top of an unstable snowpack as contributing factors. Climate scientists note a paradox - drier, warmer winters will occur in the West, but more snow is expected at higher elevations due to wetter, warmer atmospheric rivers from the Pacific.
Why it matters
The Sierra Nevada region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, with warmer, milder winters, altered seasonality, and more erratic weather patterns. This is leading to an increased risk of avalanches at higher altitudes, which poses a threat to backcountry skiers, hikers, and other outdoor enthusiasts in the region.
The details
Research has found that mountain snowfall driven by atmospheric rivers was responsible for nearly one-third of avalanche fatalities in the Western U.S. between 1998 and 2014. Climate models predict that avalanche frequency could remain the same or increase at higher altitudes in the Sierra Nevada, as warmer, wetter storms dump heavy snow on unstable snowpacks. Authorities are warning of heightened avalanche danger in Colorado as well, with the state's Avalanche Information Center advising against travel in or below avalanche terrain.
- On Tuesday, an avalanche killed at least 8 backcountry skiers in a remote region near Lake Tahoe.
- In early 2026, the Sierra Nevada is expecting an atmospheric river that could bring heavy snowfall to the region.
The players
Ned Bair
A researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the former research chairman of the American Avalanche Association.
Heather Richards
A forecast meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Reno, Nevada.
What they’re saying
“We do expect that in the highest elevations in the Sierra, for example, there to actually be more snowfall. What really matters with the avalanches is the intensity of the atmospheric rivers.”
— Ned Bair, Researcher (New York Times)
“The biggest storm of the season is bringing strong winds and feet of snow to an unusually shallow and very weak snowpack. You can easily trigger large and dangerous avalanches on most steep slopes. Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended.”
— Colorado Avalanche Information Center (New York Times)
What’s next
The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.
The takeaway
This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.
