Tesla Valuation Seen as Unjustifiable, Analyst Issues 'Strong Sell' Rating

Investor David B. McMillan cites risks around robotaxi and Optimus, says fair value is $301 per share

Published on Feb. 20, 2026

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Investor David B. McMillan has issued a 'strong sell' rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), arguing that the electric vehicle maker's $1.5 trillion valuation is unjustifiable. McMillan, who has a 12-year investing track record and has previously invested in AI, tech, and crypto themes, cites risks around Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus projects and believes the fair value of the stock is around $301 per share.

Why it matters

Tesla's valuation has been a topic of debate, with the company's stock price soaring in recent years despite concerns about execution risks and competition. McMillan's analysis adds to the growing chorus of voices questioning whether Tesla's current market capitalization is sustainable.

The details

In his analysis, McMillan points to the risks associated with Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus projects, which he believes could weigh on the company's future performance. He also argues that Tesla's current valuation is unjustifiable based on his own valuation model, which suggests a fair value of around $301 per share.

  • McMillan published his analysis on February 18, 2026.

The players

David B. McMillan

An investor with a 12-year investing track record, who has previously invested in AI, tech, and crypto themes. He has a BS in Physics and BA in Philosophy from UCSB and is currently a CFA Level 2 candidate.

Tesla, Inc.

An American electric vehicle and clean energy company that designs and manufactures electric vehicles, solar panels, energy storage products, and related products.

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What they’re saying

“Tesla, Inc. gets a strong sell rating as its $1.5T valuation looks unjustifiable; robotaxi/Optimus risks loom, and fair value is ~$301.”

— David B. McMillan, Investor (Seeking Alpha)

The takeaway

McMillan's analysis adds to the ongoing debate around Tesla's valuation, with concerns about the company's execution risks and the sustainability of its current market capitalization. Investors will be closely watching how Tesla navigates the challenges highlighted by McMillan, particularly around its robotaxi and Optimus projects.