California Gubernatorial Race Upended by Allegations Against Swalwell

Prediction markets see surge in support for billionaire Tom Steyer as Swalwell's chances plummet

Apr. 11, 2026 at 4:51pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A vibrant, abstract painting featuring overlapping, geometric shapes and waves of blue, red, and gold, conceptually representing the turbulent political landscape of the California gubernatorial race.The California gubernatorial race has been upended by allegations against a leading Democratic candidate, leading to a surge in support for a billionaire challenger in prediction markets.San Jose Today

The California gubernatorial race has faced significant shifts this week, with allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior levied against Democratic candidate Eric Swalwell leading to a surge in support for billionaire Tom Steyer in prediction markets. Swalwell has strongly denied the allegations, but the turmoil has threatened to reorder the state's top-two primary, where a splintered Democratic field has heightened the chances of two Republicans advancing.

Why it matters

The California gubernatorial race has taken sharp turns as the allegations against Swalwell have led to increasing pressure from members of his party to exit the race. This has threatened to reorder the state's top-two primary, where a fractured Democratic field could allow two Republicans to advance if Swalwell's support collapses and fails to consolidate behind another Democrat.

The details

Prediction market Polymarket has seen a surge in activity backing California hopeful Tom Steyer in his bid for governor. Bets rose sharply over the past few days, handing Steyer a 57 percent chance of winning over his Democratic rival Representative Eric Swalwell, who has slid into fourth place behind GOP candidate Steve Hilton, who has a 7 percent chance of winning, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former California Representative Katie Porter, who each have a 13 percent chance of winning.

  • Polling from earlier this week saw Hilton with a slight lead over his rivals, with Swalwell and Porter splitting the vote among Democrats.
  • Swalwell on Polymarket had a 60 percent chance of winning, and on Kalshi got close to 70 percent before he crashed in both markets down to only about three to five percent chance of winning.
  • As of midday Saturday, Steyer has seen his support surge to over 50 percent, hitting 57 percent in the morning and sliding to 55 by around noon.

The players

Tom Steyer

A billionaire businessman who has seen a surge in support in prediction markets for the California gubernatorial race.

Eric Swalwell

A Democratic candidate for California governor who has faced allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior, leading to a collapse in his support in prediction markets.

Steve Hilton

A Republican candidate for California governor who has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

Matt Mahan

The mayor of San Jose, California, who is running for governor and has a 13 percent chance of winning according to prediction markets.

Katie Porter

A former California Representative who is running for governor and has a 13 percent chance of winning according to prediction markets.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I don't care what party you're in. If you sexually assault or sexually harass your employee (or anyone), you have no business serving in Congress. I called on Tony Gonzales to resign - now I'm calling on Eric Swalwell to resign.”

— Representative Nancy Mace, South Carolina Republican

“In light of the allegations of sexual assault, Eric Swalwell should resign from Congress and end his campaign for public office. But those decisions do not absolve him of taking responsibility for his misconduct, especially when he has attempted to silence and retaliate against these victims. These allegations merit full investigations, and these women deserve the right to pursue justice. Too often, men escape any consequence for sexual misconduct by stepping out of power. That is a first and necessary step towards justice because it limits the ability for further harm. I stand with these women as they seek justice.”

— Katie Porter, Former California Representative

“California Democrats could just elevate one of the Republicans in the gubernatorial primary and prevent a lock out. It's done all the time. I don't get all the bed wetting.”

— Mike Madrid, GOP strategist

What’s next

The June 2 primaries will be a critical moment in the California gubernatorial race, as voters coalesce behind their party's candidate. The allegations against Swalwell and Trump's endorsement of Hilton could further reshape the race in the coming weeks.

The takeaway

The California gubernatorial race has faced significant turmoil in recent days, with allegations against Swalwell leading to a surge in support for Steyer in prediction markets. This has threatened to reorder the state's top-two primary, where a fractured Democratic field could allow two Republicans to advance. The June 2 primaries will be a pivotal moment in determining the final candidates for the general election.