GOP Leads Crowded California Governor's Race, Raising Democratic Concerns

Internal poll shows Republican candidates outpacing fractured Democratic field in 2026 primary

Apr. 9, 2026 at 4:22pm

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A new internal poll by the California Democratic Party shows Republican candidates Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and businessman Steve Hilton leading a crowded field of Democratic contenders in the 2026 California governor's race. The results highlight concerns that a divided Democratic vote could open the door for two Republicans to advance to the general election under the state's 'jungle primary' system.

Why it matters

The California governor's race is a high-stakes contest with national implications, and the possibility of a Republican victory in the deeply Democratic state would be a major upset. Party leaders are worried that multiple Democratic candidates splitting the vote could hand the nomination to the GOP.

The details

According to the poll, Bianco and Hilton are tied at 14% among likely voters, while the top Democratic candidates are Rep. Eric Swalwell at 12% and billionaire Tom Steyer at 11%. Other Democrats like Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, and Antonio Villaraigosa are polling in the single digits. The results reflect a shift from mid-March when Hilton had a narrow lead.

  • The poll was conducted between March 31 and April 5, 2026.
  • Additional polling by Hilton's campaign and Emerson College shows a similarly fluid race.

The players

Chad Bianco

Riverside County Sheriff and Republican candidate for California governor.

Steve Hilton

Businessman and Republican candidate for California governor, endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Eric Swalwell

U.S. Representative and Democratic candidate for California governor.

Tom Steyer

Billionaire environmentalist and Democratic candidate for California governor.

Rusty Hicks

Chair of the California Democratic Party.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident

What’s next

Tracking polls are expected every 7-10 days through early May as the race continues to take shape.

The takeaway

The crowded Democratic field and consolidation of Republican support behind two candidates has introduced uncertainty into the California governor's race, raising concerns that a divided Democratic vote could hand the nomination to the GOP in a state long dominated by the party.