NCAA Tournament 2026 Bracket Predictions: Cinderella Teams, Upsets Revealed

SportsLine's college basketball model simulates March Madness 10,000 times to forecast surprises in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.

Mar. 17, 2026 at 3:09am

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The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and the proven SportsLine computer model has simulated the entire tournament 10,000 times to forecast the biggest Cinderella teams and potential upsets. The model has a strong track record, nailing 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since 2016 and beating over 91% of CBS Sports brackets in four of the last seven tournaments.

Why it matters

With the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket revealed, basketball fans are eager to see which teams will make surprising runs and which favorites will be upset. The SportsLine model's ability to accurately predict bracket-busting upsets makes its 2026 March Madness picks essential reading for anyone filling out a tournament bracket.

The details

The model highlights several key matchups to watch in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. In the West Region, No. 8 Villanova faces No. 9 Utah State in a battle of teams seeking their first NCAA Tournament wins in years. In the same region, No. 7 Miami takes on No. 10 Missouri in a pivotal 7-10 matchup, while No. 4 Arkansas faces No. 13 Hawaii in a potential Cinderella clash. The model's simulations will reveal which Cinderella teams are poised to make surprising runs and which favorites are at risk of being upset.

  • The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed on Selection Sunday, March 16, 2026.
  • The First Four games will be played on Tuesday, March 18 and Wednesday, March 19, 2026.
  • The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will take place on Thursday, March 20 and Friday, March 21, 2026.

The players

Purdue

The No. 2 seed in the West Region, Purdue is the only team from the state of Indiana in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.

Villanova

The No. 8 seed in the West Region, Villanova has won eight consecutive Round of 64 games, the third-longest active streak in college basketball.

Utah State

The No. 9 seed in the West Region, Utah State is seeking its first multiple-win NCAA Tournament run since 1970, the longest such streak by any school.

Missouri

The No. 10 seed in the West Region, Missouri gets a home-court advantage for its matchup against Miami as the game will be played in St. Louis.

Arkansas

The No. 4 seed in the West Region, Arkansas has played 11 ranked opponents this season, going 5-6 in those contests under head coach John Calipari.

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What’s next

The First Four games will be played on Tuesday, March 18 and Wednesday, March 19, 2026, setting the stage for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 20 and Friday, March 21.

The takeaway

The SportsLine computer model's proven track record of accurately predicting bracket-busting upsets and deep Cinderella runs makes its 2026 NCAA Tournament picks essential for anyone looking to gain an edge in their March Madness bracket. With the model's simulations revealing potential surprises, basketball fans will want to closely follow its forecasts before finalizing their 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.