No Clear Frontrunner for California Governor, Poll Shows

New PPIC survey names five candidates with best shot, but race remains wide open

Published on Feb. 27, 2026

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A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows no clear frontrunner in the race for California governor, with five candidates polling between 10-14% support. The poll was conducted just days after the final Democratic candidate, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, entered the race, relegating him to the bottom tier despite expectations he will become a major contender. The top five candidates include two Republicans, raising concerns among Democrats about vote splitting in the primary.

Why it matters

With the primary election just over three months away, the wide-open nature of the California governor's race is highly unusual. Democratic leaders are worried that if all nine Democratic candidates remain in the race, they could split the party's vote enough to allow the two Republican candidates to finish one-two in the primary, potentially giving the state a GOP governor despite the party's weak voter registration. This sets up a behind-the-scenes battle as wealthy individuals, unions, and other interest groups decide which candidates to financially back.

The details

The PPIC poll shows former TV commentator Steve Hilton leading the field at 14%, followed by Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12%. The top Democrat is Congresswoman Katie Porter at 13%, likely boosted by name recognition from her 2024 U.S. Senate run. Other Democrats in the top five include Congressman Eric Swalwell at 11% and billionaire Tom Steyer at 10%. The remaining six Democratic candidates, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, are stuck in single digits and will face pressure to drop out if they can't demonstrate the potential to climb higher.

  • The PPIC poll was conducted from February 3-12, 2026.
  • The California primary election is scheduled for June 2026.

The players

Steve Hilton

A former television commentator who is the current Republican frontrunner in the California governor's race, polling at 14%.

Chad Bianco

The Republican sheriff of Riverside County, polling at 12% in the PPIC survey.

Katie Porter

A Congresswoman who is the current Democratic frontrunner in the race, polling at 13% after an unsuccessful 2024 U.S. Senate bid.

Eric Swalwell

A Congressman who is polling at 11% in the PPIC survey.

Tom Steyer

A billionaire who is polling at 10% despite saturating TV and digital with ads.

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What they’re saying

“It can be assumed that Mahan will have all the money he needs to wage a credible campaign, but the other five single-digit candidates will be hard-pressed to continue their campaigns if they lose the shadow election.”

— Dan Walters, Author (record-bee.com)

“Democratic leaders who worry about the two Republicans finishing one-two in the primary also will be pressuring the five at the bottom to drop out, so that the party's voters can coalesce around the few at the top.”

— Dan Walters, Author (record-bee.com)

What’s next

The California primary election is scheduled for June 2026, giving the candidates just over three months to gain momentum and secure funding from key donors and interest groups.

The takeaway

The wide-open nature of the 2026 California governor's race, with no clear frontrunner and a mix of Democrats and Republicans in the top tier, sets up a high-stakes battle behind the scenes as wealthy donors and powerful interest groups decide which candidates to financially back in the lead-up to the primary election.