Crowded California Governor's Race Creates Opening for Republicans

Democrats risk splitting voter support, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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The crowded field of Democratic candidates running for governor in California could give Republicans a rare opening in the deep blue stronghold. More than a half-dozen Democrats are competing in the primary, and with no clear front-runner, experts warn there's a real chance the Democrats splinter voter support, carving a path for two Republicans to move forward.

Why it matters

California is a solidly blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide elected positions and controlling the governorship for more than a decade. However, the crowded Democratic primary could create an unexpected scenario where two Republicans advance to the general election, potentially impacting down-ballot races and Democrats' hopes of flipping the House in the midterms.

The details

The California governor's race has attracted dozens of candidates, with more than a half-dozen Democrats seen as serious contenders. These include Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, Biden-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, among others. On the Republican side, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton are the two leading candidates. A model developed by California Democratic data expert Paul Mitchell shows a real possibility of a red-on-red race in the solidly blue state, with Republicans being the top two vote-getters in roughly 13% of the hypothetical outcomes.

  • The California primary election is scheduled for June 2, 2026.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The current Democratic governor of California, who is term-limited and cannot run for re-election.

Eric Swalwell

A Democratic U.S. Representative from California who is running for governor.

Katie Porter

A former Democratic U.S. Representative from California who is running for governor.

Chad Bianco

The Republican Riverside County Sheriff who is running for governor.

Steve Hilton

A conservative commentator who is running for governor as a Republican.

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What they’re saying

“The risk is that we have a situation where no Democrat makes the runoff. And if that happened, it would dramatically impact the general election.”

— Paul Mitchell, California Democratic data expert (thehill.com)

“If you told me there was a 11 percent chance I could get hit by a car if I cross the street, I wouldn't cross the street.”

— Steven Maviglio, California Democratic strategist (thehill.com)

What’s next

The California Democratic Party is holding its annual conference later this month, but observers don't expect the party to get involved with a primary endorsement. Voters will head to the polls for the California primary election on June 2, 2026.

The takeaway

The crowded Democratic field in the California governor's race creates a rare opening for Republicans in the deep blue state, raising concerns about the potential for a red-on-red general election matchup that could impact down-ballot races and Democrats' midterm hopes. This scenario underscores frustrations with California's top-two primary system, which some argue could lead to unintended consequences.