Experts Warn of Potential 'Very Strong' El Niño Brewing in Pacific

Forecasters closely tracking development of seasonal climate pattern that could impact California weather

Apr. 9, 2026 at 9:55pm by Ben Kaplan

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting in the style of Caspar David Friedrich, featuring a dramatic, stormy sky with heavy, turbulent clouds dominating the scene and dwarfing any physical structures or objects below, conveying the overwhelming, sublime power of the natural world.The looming threat of a potentially historic El Niño event casts a foreboding shadow over the California landscape.San Francisco Today

As signs of El Niño emerge in the Pacific Ocean, forecasters are closely monitoring the potential for a 'very strong' El Niño event developing, which could bring significant weather impacts to California. While El Niño is often associated with a wet winter, experts caution that the outcomes can vary and that it's still too early in the year to make definitive predictions.

Why it matters

El Niño and La Niña patterns can have far-reaching effects on global weather, and California in particular is often impacted by these seasonal climate shifts. A 'very strong' El Niño could bring heavy rainfall and flooding to the state, but the outcomes are not guaranteed, and climate change may be altering historical patterns. Understanding the potential for a powerful El Niño event is crucial for emergency preparedness and resource planning.

The details

According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, there is a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July and last through the end of 2026. The outlook also found a 25% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño emerging. Experts say this potential event has more access to warm water in the Pacific and stronger westerly wind forcing than past strong El Niños, raising the possibility of a historically powerful occurrence. However, scientists caution that spring forecasts can be unreliable, and it's still too early to definitively predict the strength and impacts of this developing El Niño.

  • The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center issued its latest El Niño outlook on April 9, 2026.
  • There is a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will begin between May and July 2026 and last at least through the end of the year.
  • The outlook also found a 25% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño developing.

The players

National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center

The federal agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns.

Alexander Gershunov

A research meteorologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego who commented on the El Niño forecast.

Michelle L'Heureux

The lead of the ENSO team at the Climate Prediction Center, who explained the potential significance of a stronger El Niño.

Paul Roundy

An atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany in New York who discussed the potential for an unprecedented El Niño event.

Jan Null

A meteorologist and private weather consultant with Golden Gate Weather Services who cautioned against overhyping the El Niño forecast.

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What they’re saying

“The forecast has been homing in on what looks like a good-sized El Niño event. But of course, there's a big spread in model predictions, so it could still be anything from neutral conditions to a very strong El Niño.”

— Alexander Gershunov, Research Meteorologist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego

“The advantage of seeing stronger El Niños (vs. weaker events) is that we generally see a pattern of weather and climate impacts over the globe that looks more like what is expected during El Niño. With that said, especially since you are in California, it is important to keep in mind that even the strongest El Niños in our record do not always appear exactly as anticipated.”

— Michelle L'Heureux, Lead of the ENSO Team, Climate Prediction Center

“We had several events since 1980 that became super strong. … This potential developing event has more access to warm water than any of those past events had and has also achieved more westerly wind forcing in the western Pacific than any of those previous events. It's possible that this event doesn't achieve the strongest level in 140 years, but the likelihood is perhaps higher than any event in the last 50 years.”

— Paul Roundy, Atmospheric Scientist, University at Albany

“In projecting from what we see now into what's going to happen next winter, the problem is that there's always been this spring predictability barrier. There are too many changes in that time. June is when we start seeing the better forecasts coming out.”

— Jan Null, Meteorologist and Private Weather Consultant, Golden Gate Weather Services

What’s next

The Climate Prediction Center will issue updated El Niño forecasts in the coming months, with more reliable predictions expected by June. Emergency management officials and water resource planners in California will closely monitor the developing situation to prepare for potential impacts.

The takeaway

While the potential for a 'very strong' El Niño event raises concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding in California, experts caution that the outcomes are not guaranteed, and climate change may be altering historical patterns. Careful monitoring and preparation will be crucial in the months ahead as the situation develops.