California's 'Snow-Eater' Heat Wave Raises Wildfire Concerns

Early snowmelt and dry conditions could lead to an extended fire season in the state.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 10:41pm by Ben Kaplan

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California is experiencing a record-breaking heat wave that is rapidly melting the state's snowpack, raising concerns about an early and potentially severe wildfire season. Scientists warn that the 'snow-eater' heat wave, which is defined as temperatures above freezing both day and night for at least three days, could nearly double typical spring snowmelt rates. This could lead to drier vegetation and increased fire risk, even though moisture levels remain normal for now.

Why it matters

California has faced devastating wildfires in recent years, and an early start to the fire season could extend the period of high risk. The rapid snowmelt could also impact water supplies and ecosystems that rely on the Sierra Nevada snowpack. Preparing for an earlier and potentially longer fire season is crucial for public safety and resource management.

The details

The heat wave is forecast to continue through the end of March, with temperatures up to 30 degrees above normal at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab. Scientists say the entire snowpack at the lab may melt off by the first week of April, about five weeks earlier than normal. This 'snow-eater' effect has been found to nearly double typical spring snowmelt rates. While vegetation moisture levels remain normal for now, the heat is expected to start drying out dead fuels like fallen trees and brush, making them more flammable. Cal Fire is gearing up for an earlier peak fire season, though it's too early to draw definitive conclusions about the summer.

  • The heat wave is forecast to continue through the end of March.
  • The UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab's entire snowpack may melt off by the first week of April, about five weeks earlier than normal.
  • The 'next period of concern' for wildfire risk is expected around next weekend as the high-pressure system breaks down and winds pick up.

The players

Daniel McEvoy

A climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center and Desert Research Institute.

Craig Clements

Director of the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center at San Jose State University.

Alan Rhodes

A researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory who led a multi-institute study on 'snow-eater' heat waves.

Brent Pascua

A battalion chief for Cal Fire based in San Diego.

Julia Rutherford

A fire weather meteorologist at the U.S. Forest Service.

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What they’re saying

“Generally early loss of snow means things have the potential to become drier earlier in the season and more dried out and flammable by later summer.”

— Daniel McEvoy, Climatologist

“It looks like this record-breaking heat wave is going to further melt the snowpack and dry out the fuels earlier than we'd expect.”

— Craig Clements, Director of the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center

“After this week, you'll start to see the grass begin to turn brown and be ready to burn.”

— Brent Pascua, Battalion Chief, Cal Fire

“There are factors of concern beginning to line up with the current low snow pack and early onset of heat wave conditions, but what happens after this week ... is going to play a bigger role in determining how severe our fire season is this year.”

— Julia Rutherford, Fire Weather Meteorologist, U.S. Forest Service

What’s next

Cal Fire will continue monitoring the state's wildfire situation and will send additional firefighters, engines and equipment to areas where the risk grows.

The takeaway

This early heat wave and rapid snowmelt could lead to an extended and potentially severe wildfire season in California, highlighting the need for continued vigilance and preparation to protect communities and natural resources.