California Faces Uncertainty in Defending Against Potential Iranian Drone Threat

Experts say an attack is plausible but unlikely, as Iran would face major logistical challenges to strike the U.S. West Coast.

Mar. 13, 2026 at 2:08am by Ben Kaplan

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Following an FBI warning about a potential Iranian drone strike in California, security experts say such an attack is possible but faces significant hurdles. While the likelihood is low, it remains unclear how the state would defend against a drone launched offshore. Analysts say any strike would likely be more symbolic than strategic, but could still have a major impact on California.

Why it matters

The warning highlights ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and raises questions about California's preparedness and ability to defend against unconventional aerial threats. Even a limited attack could have outsized political and economic consequences for the state.

The details

The FBI warning, sent to law enforcement agencies in late February, stated that Iran was exploring the possibility of launching drones at targets along the West Coast from an offshore vessel. However, the details about the timing, method, target, or perpetrators remain unclear. While some officials have downplayed the threat, security experts say it is not implausible, as Iran has experimented with deploying missiles and drones from ships. Carrying out such an attack would require solving major logistical challenges, such as moving launch platforms close to the coast without being detected.

  • The FBI warning was sent to law enforcement agencies in late February 2026.
  • The details of the warning only came to light on March 13, 2026, following reporting by ABC News.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The Governor of California, who said there was 'no imminent threat' from the potential drone strike.

Michael Eisenstadt

The director of military and security studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who said the drone strike scenario is 'not implausible' and could be more 'symbolic' than strategic for Iran.

Clark Summers

A former California resident, retired U.S. Army officer, and assistant professor at Belmont Abbey College in North Carolina, who also called the risk low but not impossible based on the logistics required.

Phillip Sanfield

The communications director for the Port of Los Angeles, who stated there is 'no credible' threat to the port at this time.

Ben Williamson

The FBI Assistant Director for Public Affairs, who stated the bureau obtained 'unverified information' in February about Iran exploring the possibility of launching drones at targets along the West Coast.

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What they’re saying

“It's not implausible. It's probably more aspirational at this point. They've been showing an interest for years in putting drones and missiles on boats.”

— Michael Eisenstadt, Director of military and security studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (SFGATE)

“Imagine what would happen to this country if there was a drone attack out of Iran, you know, and it hits a sporting event, or it's a government building, or it hit a military base … you got aircraft carriers in San Diego, and you have naval bases up in Washington state. Any ability to strike and hurt the United States would be, from their point of view, a major triumph.”

— Michael Eisenstadt, Director of military and security studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (SFGATE)

“When people think of the United States worldwide, their images of the US are largely shaped by either California or New York.”

— Clark Summers, Former California resident, retired U.S. Army officer, and assistant professor at Belmont Abbey College (SFGATE)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.