Trump's War Becomes World's Latest Economic Hazard

Fuel prices could soar, and stay elevated for months, as conflict with Iran disrupts global oil supply.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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The president insists conflict with Iran will be brief, but world leaders are preparing for severe economic blowback. Fuel prices could soar, and stay elevated for months, making groceries and other shipped goods more expensive. Consumers and businesses, stung by the rising costs, could choose to spend less, constraining economic growth.

Why it matters

At the heart of the panic is a surge in the price of oil, which at one point rose above $100 per barrel. Because energy is central to the functioning of the global economy, the turbulence has sparked fears about a prolonged conflict that could inflict some of its steepest financial costs on Americans.

The details

World leaders convened an emergency meeting of the Group of 7 countries, where finance ministers considered, yet decided against, tapping their national stores of oil to increase available supply. The gathering came as Mr. Trump continued to assert that the war he started with Iran would be short, rendering it unnecessary for the U.S. government to mount a major economic response.

  • The U.S.-led war with Iran is now in its second week.
  • On Monday, the price of oil rose above $100 per barrel.

The players

Donald Trump

The president of the United States who started the conflict with Iran.

Tim Mahedy

Chief economist at Access/Macro, a research firm, who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Bernard Yaros

The lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Gregory Daco

The chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

Kevin Hassett

The director of the White House National Economic Council.

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What they’re saying

“This is a very concerning shock to consumers, which have been a driving force in the economy.”

— Tim Mahedy, chief economist at Access/Macro

“If $100-per-barrel oil is sustained, you're going to see the impact most directly in less consumer spending.”

— Bernard Yaros, the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics

“This administration is a sequence of supply shocks. This is coming on top of two other very significant supply shocks, tariffs and immigration policy.”

— Tim Mahedy, chief economist at Access/Macro

“From my early briefings about what was going to happen, and how it was going to affect the economy, it's going way faster, it's been way more successful, than I expected just listening to the briefings.”

— Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council (CNBC)

What’s next

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The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.