Odds of Strong El Niño Surge, Potential California Impacts Clearer

Top climate forecast models now signal moderate to strong El Niño by late summer 2026.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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One of the world's top seasonal forecast models now puts the odds of a strong El Niño developing by late summer 2026 at 80 percent, with the odds of at least a moderate event even higher at around 98 percent. This sharp increase in forecast confidence compared to a month ago has climate scientists closely watching for potential impacts in California, including warmer coastal waters, reduced coastal fog, and an increased chance of tropical storm remnants reaching the state.

Why it matters

El Niño events can have significant impacts on weather patterns and climate in California, including increased risk of drought, wildfires, and severe storms. A strong El Niño could bring major changes to the state's weather and climate, affecting everything from agriculture to water resources to public safety.

The details

The shift to a probable, and potentially strong, El Niño has been driven in part by a series of unusually strong westerly wind bursts along the equator beginning in January. These bursts temporarily overwhelmed the trade winds that sustain the current La Niña, allowing warm water that had been pooled in the western Pacific to surge eastward. Subsurface ocean temperatures are also running nearly 6 degrees above normal in some parts of the Central Pacific, giving the emerging El Niño pattern some staying power.

  • In January 2026, a series of unusually strong westerly wind bursts along the equator began.
  • By early March 2026, equatorial subsurface ocean temperatures showed anomalies of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius above normal at depths of 100 to 150 meters across much of the central and eastern Pacific.
  • NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expected to release its updated March ENSO outlook later this week.

The players

Shang Ping Xie

A climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Daniel Swain

A climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources.

Paul Roundy

An atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany who studies tropical Pacific dynamics.

Jan Null

A California-focused meteorologist and longtime ENSO analyst.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

The U.S. government agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

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What they’re saying

“Something happened between February and March. As recently as a month ago, forecast models showed several possible outcomes. But now, there is a growing consensus that a moderate to strong El Nino will emerge by the end of the summer.”

— Shang Ping Xie, Climate scientist (San Francisco Chronicle)

“The most likely outcome is a significant El Niño event for the summer — that's a very high confidence statement. And there are early but tentative signs that it could be a particularly strong one.”

— Daniel Swain, Climate scientist (San Francisco Chronicle)

“In 2014 we were in a similar situation in March, but the westerly wind events ceased in April. This is why some caution remains merited. The next four to six weeks will be important to watch.”

— Paul Roundy, Atmospheric scientist (San Francisco Chronicle)

“We've had three previous major warming events in '82, '97, great big very wet years in California. 2014 was supposed to be the same, but it was a bust. All the past correlations that worked so well in predicting El Niño in the 80s and 90s are gone. It's a crapshoot.”

— Jan Null, Meteorologist and ENSO analyst (San Francisco Chronicle)

What’s next

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expected to release its updated March ENSO outlook later this week, which will provide further clarity on the likelihood and potential strength of the emerging El Niño event.

The takeaway

The potential for a strong El Niño event in 2026 has climate scientists closely watching for its possible impacts on California, including warmer coastal waters, reduced coastal fog, and an increased risk of tropical storm remnants reaching the state. However, some experts caution that the reliability of El Niño forecasts has diminished in recent years, and the next few weeks will be crucial in determining if this event materializes as strongly as current models suggest.