Trump Predicts Dow Jones to Hit 100K by 2029

Former president says tariffs will drive the stock market to double in 3 years.

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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Former President Donald Trump predicted on social media that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 100,000 points by the end of his presidency, doubling in the next three years due to his tariffs. However, economic experts have warned that the impacts of tariffs are mixed, with unemployment initially rising as inflation falls, before the pattern inverting over time.

Why it matters

Trump's bold prediction about the Dow Jones hitting 100,000 points by 2029 is seen by many as an overly optimistic assessment of the long-term impacts of his trade policies. The Supreme Court is currently considering the legality of the tariffs imposed by Trump without congressional approval.

The details

In a social media post, Trump wrote that the Dow Jones, which surpassed 50,000 points on Friday, will reach 100,000 points by the end of his presidency due to the 'Great TARIFFS.' However, research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests a more complex impact, with tariffs initially resembling a negative demand shock before economic activity and inflation increase over time.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points on Friday, February 6, 2026.
  • Trump made his prediction about the Dow Jones reaching 100,000 points by the end of his presidency on Sunday, February 8, 2026.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president of the United States who imposed tariffs that he claims will drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 100,000 points by the end of his term.

Fernanda Nechio

Vice president of economic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who co-authored a report showing mixed impacts of tariffs, with unemployment initially rising as inflation falls before the pattern inverting over time.

Òscar Jordà

Senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who co-authored a report with Fernanda Nechio on the mixed impacts of tariffs.

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What they’re saying

“Record Stock Market, and National Security, driven by our Great TARIFFS. I am predicting 100,000 on the DOW by the end of my Term.”

— Donald Trump (Truth Social)

“Our results suggest that, immediately following an increase in tariff rates, the unemployment rate tends to increase, and inflation tends to fall. This pattern suggests that, at first, the effects of tariffs more closely resemble a negative demand shock—that is, consumers and businesses pull back their spending, which slows economic activity and also slows down inflation.”

— Fernanda Nechio, Vice president of economic research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report)

“Over time, however, economic activity picks up and inflation increases to a higher rate than would have been the case without the tariff increase.”

— Òscar Jordà, Senior policy advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report)

What’s next

The Supreme Court is considering the legality of Trump's tariffs, which were issued without congressional approval.

The takeaway

Trump's bold prediction about the Dow Jones hitting 100,000 points by 2029 due to his tariffs is viewed skeptically by economic experts, who have found more complex and mixed impacts from such trade policies. The long-term effects remain uncertain as the Supreme Court weighs the legality of the former president's tariff actions.