Weekly Commentary: Deleveraging Watch

The President's tariff 'pause' triggered a major short squeeze and reversal of market hedges.

Published on Feb. 7, 2026

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In this weekly commentary, the author Doug Noland reflects on his 30-year career as a 'professional bear' and the lessons he has learned about the markets, economics, and policymaking. Noland discusses his experiences working at various hedge funds and investment firms, as well as his passion for Austrian economics and macro analysis. He believes that momentous developments in finance, markets, and policymaking are going unrecognized by conventional analysis and the media, and he started his blog, the Credit Bubble Bulletin, to shed light on these issues.

Why it matters

Noland's perspective as a long-time bear and his insights into the current 'extraordinary global Bubble period' provide valuable context for understanding the broader economic and financial landscape. His commentary offers a counterpoint to mainstream analysis and highlights the importance of independent, critical thinking when it comes to evaluating market trends and policy decisions.

The details

Noland's career began in the late 1980s when he was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. He later had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and then worked as a strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice at PrudentBear for 16 years until the bear funds were sold in 2008. Throughout his career, Noland has been an impassioned reader of The Richebacher Letter and has assisted the late Dr. Richebacher with his publication. Noland believes that his experiences working at Toyota during the Japanese Bubble period and the 1987 stock market crash first sparked his love for macro analysis.

  • Noland began his career as a 'professional bear' in late-1989.
  • He worked at PrudentBear as a strategist and portfolio manager from 1999 to 2014.
  • Noland started his blog, the Credit Bubble Bulletin, in the late 1990s to shed light on developments in finance, markets, and policymaking.

The players

Doug Noland

A 'professional bear' with over 30 years of experience in the investment industry, including stints at various hedge funds and as a strategist and portfolio manager at PrudentBear.

Gordon Ringoen

The founder of a short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco where Noland worked as a trader.

David Tice

The co-founder of PrudentBear, where Noland worked as a strategist and portfolio manager.

Dr. Richebacher

The author of The Richebacher Letter, which Noland read avidly and assisted with from 1996 to 2001.

Benjamin Anderson

An economist whose writings during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression era inspired Noland's approach to contemporaneous analysis.

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What they’re saying

“I believe there is great value in contemporaneous analysis, and I'll point to Benjamin Anderson's brilliant writings in the 'Chase Economic Bulletin' during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression era.”

— Doug Noland (Credit Bubble Bulletin)

“Ben Bernanke has referred to understanding the forces leading up to the Great Depression as the 'Holy Grail of Economics.' I believe 'The Grail' will instead be discovered through knowledge and understanding of the current extraordinary global Bubble period.”

— Doug Noland (Credit Bubble Bulletin)

The takeaway

Noland's decades-long career as a 'professional bear' and his deep understanding of economic and financial history provide a unique perspective on the current global economic landscape. His commitment to independent, critical analysis and his belief that the 'Holy Grail' lies in understanding the 'extraordinary global Bubble period' make his commentary an important counterpoint to mainstream narratives.