California, West to See Major Weather Shift with Rain, Snow on the Way

After weeks of warm, dry conditions, a pattern change is bringing precipitation to parts of the state.

Published on Feb. 5, 2026

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Following an extended period of warm, dry weather, forecast models indicate a significant pattern change is on the horizon for California and the broader West Coast. A weakening high-pressure ridge will allow storm systems to bring rain and snow to the region as early as this weekend, with a more substantial precipitation window expected to open up around February 12-18.

Why it matters

The incoming precipitation is a welcome development for California, which has seen its statewide snowpack drop to just 57% of average. However, the initial systems are expected to bring warm air and rain rather than snow, which won't help rebuild the depleted snowpack that the state relies on for water supply. The timing and nature of the later-February storms will be critical in determining whether the pattern change can truly begin to reverse the dry conditions.

The details

On Sunday, a storm system off the Pacific Northwest coast will push a cold front down the California coast, bringing a chance of light rain to the North Bay and coastal mountains. But the more impactful pattern shift is expected around February 10, when forecast models indicate a more complete breakdown of the high-pressure ridge. This should open the door for a series of storm systems to reach California, with the period from February 12-18 looking particularly promising for more widespread and substantial precipitation.

  • On Sunday, February 9, a storm system off the Pacific Northwest will bring a chance of light rain to the North Bay and coastal mountains.
  • Around February 10, forecast models indicate a more complete breakdown of the high-pressure ridge, allowing storm systems to reach California.
  • From February 12-18, models suggest a more potent and longer-duration upper-level storm system could bring multiple shots of precipitation to California.

The players

National Weather Service

The federal agency responsible for weather forecasting and issuing weather-related warnings in the United States.

Climate Prediction Center

A division of the National Weather Service that provides long-range weather outlooks and climate predictions.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

What’s next

The critical question for the second half of February is whether the later-period storms bring a different air mass that would lower snow levels and help rebuild the depleted Sierra snowpack.

The takeaway

While the incoming precipitation is a positive development for California's drought conditions, the initial storm systems may not provide the type of snowfall the state needs to replenish its water supply. The timing and nature of the later-February storms will be crucial in determining whether this pattern change can truly begin to reverse the dry conditions.