Weekly Commentary: Kevin Warsh And Regime Change

Veteran market strategist examines the forces shaping the current global economic landscape.

Published on Jan. 31, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

In this weekly commentary, the author reflects on his three decades of experience as a 'professional bear,' working as a trader, analyst, and portfolio manager during the great bull market of the 1990s. He discusses his passion for Austrian economics and macro analysis, which was shaped by his time working at Toyota during the Japanese Bubble period and the 1987 stock market crash. The author also shares his belief that momentous developments in finance, markets, and policymaking are going unrecognized by conventional analysis and the media, inspiring him to start his blog, the Credit Bubble Bulletin, to shed light on these issues.

Why it matters

The author's extensive experience and unique perspective on the global economic landscape provide valuable insights into the forces shaping the current market environment. His commentary offers a counterpoint to mainstream analysis and highlights the importance of understanding historical precedents and alternative economic frameworks, such as Austrian economics, in navigating the complexities of the modern financial system.

The details

The author's career in finance began in the late 1980s, when he was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. He later had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and in 1999, he began a 16-year run as strategist and portfolio manager with PrudentBear. Throughout his career, the author has been an impassioned reader of The Richebacher Letter, which introduced him to Austrian economics and solidified his passion for macro analysis. Prior to his work in investments, the author worked as a treasury analyst at Toyota's U.S. headquarters during the Japanese Bubble period and the 1987 stock market crash, where he first recognized his love for macro analysis.

  • The author began his career as a 'professional bear' in late-1989.
  • In January 1999, the author began his 16-year run with PrudentBear, which concluded at the end of 2014.
  • The author has been an impassioned reader of The Richebacher Letter since the early-1990s.

The players

Gordon Ringoen

The founder of the short-biased hedge fund where the author worked as a trader in the late 1980s.

David Tice

The co-founder of PrudentBear, where the author worked as a strategist and portfolio manager from 1999 to 2014.

Dr. Richebacher

The author of The Richebacher Letter, which introduced the author to Austrian economics and solidified his passion for macro analysis.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I believe there is great value in contemporaneous analysis, and I'll point to Benjamin Anderson's brilliant writings in the 'Chase Economic Bulletin' during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression era.”

— Doug Noland, Author (seekingalpha.com)

“Ben Bernanke has referred to understanding the forces leading up to the Great Depression as the 'Holy Grail of Economics.' I believe 'The Grail' will instead be discovered through knowledge and understanding of the current extraordinary global Bubble period.”

— Doug Noland, Author (seekingalpha.com)

The takeaway

The author's extensive experience and unique perspective on the global economic landscape provide valuable insights into the forces shaping the current market environment. His commentary highlights the importance of understanding historical precedents and alternative economic frameworks, such as Austrian economics, in navigating the complexities of the modern financial system.