Prediction: This Popular Cryptocurrency Will Plunge 50% (or More) by Year-End 2026

XRP could be headed for another sell-off as the token's momentum is driven more by hype than fundamental progress.

Jan. 31, 2026 at 4:31am by Ben Kaplan

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

During the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency XRP rallied to a seven-year high. However, smart investors realized the momentum was driven more by hype than by fundamental progress with the token. With few catalysts on the horizon and intensifying competition, XRP could be headed for another sell-off, potentially plunging 50% or more by the end of 2026.

Why it matters

XRP's recent rally was entirely driven by a speculative narrative rather than the token's underlying fundamentals. The cryptocurrency landscape is riddled with altcoins with little to no utility, and XRP's value proposition of enabling quick and cost-effective cross-border payments is facing competition from stablecoins and SWIFT's own digital infrastructure experiments.

The details

During the first half of 2025, XRP surged by about 70%, reaching a price of $3 for the first time since 2018. However, the token plummeted during the second half of the year, ultimately ending 2025 down 10%. The broader cryptocurrency market witnessed heavy selling pressure as capital began rotating into safe havens like gold and silver, as well as more-durable secular themes such as artificial intelligence stocks. Additionally, many banks are experimenting with stablecoins, a far less volatile asset, and the incumbent network SWIFT is also testing a digital infrastructure, which could impact Ripple's future and, by extension, XRP's adoption.

  • In the first half of 2025, XRP rallied to a seven-year high.
  • During the second half of 2025, XRP plummeted, ultimately ending the year down 10%.

The players

XRP

A cryptocurrency issued by the payments company Ripple.

Ripple

A payments company that issues the XRP cryptocurrency.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

The U.S. regulatory agency that had been in a legal tiff with Ripple over whether XRP should be considered a security.

SWIFT

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, the incumbent network that is also testing a digital infrastructure.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

The takeaway

XRP has the potential to be explosive, but all signs are pointing to a questionable adoption curve. The token's current valuation of $116 billion is pricing in a good bit of optimism driven by the speculative rally from last year, and meaningful valuation contraction is in store for 2026, with the price potentially normalizing closer to $1.