California Sees Declining Crime Rates Amid Nationwide Trend

Homicides drop in major cities, but reasons remain unclear

Jan. 29, 2026 at 3:31pm by Ben Kaplan

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California is seeing a decline in crime rates across the state, especially when it comes to homicides. The reasons behind this trend are complex, with experts citing factors like disruptions in government activities and community-based programs during the pandemic. While the homicide rate in California spiked in 2020 and 2021, it has since declined, mirroring a nationwide trend of a 21% drop in homicides between 2024 and 2025 across 35 major cities.

Why it matters

The declining crime rates in California, particularly the drop in homicides, is significant as it reverses a concerning spike seen during the pandemic. Understanding the factors behind this trend could inform policies and programs to sustain the progress and address underlying issues. The statewide decline is also part of a broader national trend, suggesting broader societal shifts.

The details

After years of decline, the homicide rate in California surged by 31% in 2020 to 5.5 homicides per 100,000 people, and rose again in 2021 to about 6 per 100,000 people. However, this trend began to turn in 2022, when the number of homicides dropped by 7%, then in 2023 by 14% and in 2024 by another 12%. By the end of 2024, the homicide rate in California was down to 4.3 per 100,000 people. Experts cite disruptions in government activities, school closures, job losses, and the pausing of community-based violence prevention programs during the pandemic as potential factors behind the initial spike, which has since reversed.

  • In 2020, the homicide rate in California surged by 31% to 5.5 homicides per 100,000 people.
  • In 2021, the homicide rate in California rose again to about 6 per 100,000 people.
  • In 2022, the number of homicides in California dropped by 7%.
  • In 2023, the number of homicides in California dropped by 14%.
  • In 2024, the number of homicides in California dropped by another 12%, bringing the rate down to 4.3 per 100,000 people.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The Governor of California who has celebrated the state's declining homicide rate and used it to criticize other states with higher rates.

Magnus Lofstrom

The policy director of criminal justice at the nonpartisan think tank the Public Policy Institute of California, who has analyzed the factors behind the crime rate changes.

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What they’re saying

“California cities are seeing record-low homicide rates. Oakland, the lowest since 1967; LA, the lowest since 1966; and San Francisco, the lowest since 1954.”

— Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (State of the State speech)

“The spike of homicides during the pandemic may have been the result of disruptions in government activities: Schools were shut down, people were out of work, community-based programs for violence prevention and many basic public services were put on pause.”

— Magnus Lofstrom, Policy director of criminal justice, Public Policy Institute of California (KQED)

The takeaway

The declining crime rates in California, particularly the drop in homicides, is a positive trend that reverses a concerning spike seen during the pandemic. Understanding the complex, multifactorial reasons behind this progress could inform policies and programs to sustain the improvements and address underlying issues. The statewide decline is also part of a broader national trend, suggesting broader societal shifts that merit further examination.