Tribal Casinos Face Threat from Prediction Markets

Tribal leaders voice concerns over the explosive growth of online prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Apr. 2, 2026 at 7:38pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A minimalist studio still life photograph featuring a stack of casino chips, a pair of dice, and a smartphone displaying a prediction market app interface, all arranged elegantly on a clean, monochromatic background to conceptually represent the tension between traditional tribal gambling and the rise of unregulated online prediction markets.As tribal casinos face an uncertain future due to the growth of online prediction markets, the industry's hard-won place in the U.S. gambling landscape hangs in the balance.San Diego Today

Tribal leaders at the Indian Gaming Association's annual convention in San Diego have expressed growing concerns over the rise of online prediction markets, which they say pose a threat to the $40 billion tribal gambling industry. The association has accused these platforms of sidestepping federal, state, and tribal gambling regulations, and has called on Congress to take action. Tribal nations have also filed lawsuits against prediction market operators, arguing they are violating federal law and state-tribal gambling compacts.

Why it matters

Tribal gambling enterprises generate significant revenue that funds critical social services in Native American communities. The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, passed in 1988, established a carefully negotiated framework for tribal gambling, which tribal leaders argue is now being undermined by the unregulated prediction market platforms.

The details

Prediction markets allow users to wager on the outcome of virtually any event, from sports to political outcomes. These platforms have grown in popularity and controversy since the 2024 election. Operators argue their products are distinct from traditional gambling and should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but tribal leaders and some states disagree, accusing the platforms of unlawful gambling.

  • The Indian Gaming Association's annual convention in San Diego took place this week.
  • The 1988 Indian Gaming Regulatory Act established the current framework for tribal gambling in the United States.
  • The Trump administration has so far backed the prediction market platforms, which are facing lawsuits from more than a dozen U.S. states and four tribal nations.

The players

David Bean

Chairman of the Indian Gaming Association, who has accused prediction markets of misrepresenting their products to sidestep gambling regulations.

Kalshi

A prediction market platform that disputes claims it is circumventing regulation.

Polymarket

A prediction market platform that has seen explosive growth in recent years.

Patrice Kunesh

A fellow at the Brookings Institution who has studied the history and impact of tribal gambling in the United States.

Jonodev Chaudhuri

Former Chairman of the National Indian Gaming Commission, who has described the mood at this year's Indian Gaming Association convention as one of collective worry over the rise of prediction markets.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“'This is no innovation. This is unlawful gambling dressed up as finance.'”

— David Bean, Chairman, Indian Gaming Association

“'Tribes were asserting sovereignty. That rankled the states.'”

— Patrice Kunesh, Fellow, Brookings Institution

“'There's an intensity in the discussions that is more pointed than I've seen perhaps ever in these rooms.'”

— Jonodev Chaudhuri, Former Chairman, National Indian Gaming Commission

“'We're taking on somebody who makes more money on one event than we do in an entire year.'”

— Jon Greendeer, President, Ho-Chunk Nation

What’s next

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering new rules for prediction markets, while the Indian Gaming Association has announced a defense fund to support legal actions against the platforms.

The takeaway

The rise of prediction markets poses a significant challenge to the tribal gambling industry, which has long operated under a carefully regulated framework. Tribal leaders are concerned these new platforms are undermining their hard-won place in the U.S. gambling landscape, threatening critical revenue streams for their communities.