Duke's collapse is the latest proof the No. 1 overall seed means little in March

A look at the past decade shows how often the favorite falls short of the national title despite earning the top overall seed.

Mar. 30, 2026 at 7:11pm

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A cubist, geometric painting depicting a college basketball game, with overlapping shapes and planes of color representing the chaotic action on the court.The No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament is no guarantee of success, as evidenced by Duke's stunning collapse against UConn in the Elite Eight.San Diego Today

Duke's 19-point Elite Eight collapse against UConn is the latest reminder that being the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament is no guarantee of success. Over the past decade, only one of the 10 teams named the No. 1 overall seed has gone on to win the national championship.

Why it matters

The No. 1 overall seed is often viewed as college basketball's regular season champion, but the data shows that status means little once the madness of March takes over. This latest collapse by Duke highlights the vulnerability of even the most talented teams when the pressure of the NCAA Tournament mounts.

The details

Duke led by 19 points in the first half against UConn but slowly unraveled in the second half, unable to hold off the Huskies' comeback. This marked the second straight year the Blue Devils suffered a stunning late-game collapse in the NCAA Tournament after blowing a lead against Houston in the 2025 Final Four.

  • Duke led by 19 points in the first half.
  • Duke maintained the lead for the entire second half before slowly breaking down.

The players

Braylon Mullins

A UConn freshman who hit the game-winning shot against Duke.

Donovan Clingan

The 7-foot-2 center who was a key part of UConn's 2024 national championship team.

Zach Edey

The 7-foot-4 center who led Purdue to the 2024 national title game against UConn.

Johni Broome

The star forward who led Auburn to the 2025 Final Four as a No. 1 overall seed.

Jalen Suggs

The Gonzaga guard who hit an iconic buzzer-beater in the 2021 Final Four before the Bulldogs lost in the national title game.

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What they’re saying

“Only one of the last 10 teams to be proclaimed the No. 1 overall seed has cut down the nets when it was all said and done, underscoring the fact that being college basketball's "regular season champion" only means so much once March Madness truly gets going.”

— David Cobb, Author

“This was the standard that any team with the distinction of being the No. 1 overall seed aspires to meet. But few have the combination of talent, experience and ruthless efficiency to reach it.”

— David Cobb, Author

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.