Padres' Starting Rotation Raises Concerns in NL West Race

Lack of proven production from pitchers beyond ace Nick Pivetta could hold San Diego back in pursuit of Dodgers

Mar. 28, 2026 at 6:07pm

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A cubist, geometric painting depicting a fractured, multi-angled view of a baseball pitcher in the midst of their delivery, the player's form broken down into sharp, overlapping planes of muted earth tones.The Padres' patchwork starting rotation could be the team's Achilles' heel in their quest to dethrone the Dodgers in the NL West.San Diego Today

The San Diego Padres have a talented roster that should make them serious contenders in the NL West and for the postseason, but their starting rotation outside of ace Nick Pivetta is a major question mark heading into the 2026 season. With Joe Musgrove and Griffin Canning starting the year on the injured list, the Padres' projected Opening Day rotation of Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez, and Walker Buehler combined for just 1.6 bWAR last season, raising concerns about the team's ability to keep pace with the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers.

Why it matters

The Padres' rotation issues could prevent them from overtaking the Dodgers for the NL West title, as Los Angeles has consistently fielded one of the best starting staffs in baseball. San Diego's bullpen and lineup are strong, but the team's postseason hopes may hinge on getting reliable production from its starting pitchers.

The details

Beyond ace Nick Pivetta, the Padres' projected Opening Day rotation includes Michael King, who made just 15 starts last year, Randy Vasquez, who had a 3.85 ERA in 26 starts, German Marquez, who struggled to a 6.70 ERA for the Rockies, and Walker Buehler, who posted 0.0 bWAR between the Phillies and Red Sox. While these pitchers have shown flashes of potential, they all have significant question marks heading into the 2026 season.

  • The Padres' rotation issues are a concern heading into the 2026 MLB season.

The players

Nick Pivetta

The Padres' ace starting pitcher.

Michael King

A member of the Padres' projected starting rotation who made just 15 starts last season.

Randy Vasquez

A member of the Padres' projected starting rotation who had a 3.85 ERA in 26 starts last season.

German Marquez

A member of the Padres' projected starting rotation who struggled to a 6.70 ERA for the Rockies last season.

Walker Buehler

A member of the Padres' projected starting rotation who posted 0.0 bWAR between the Phillies and Red Sox last season.

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What they’re saying

“Pivotal number: 1.6. With Joe Musgrave and Griffin Canning starting off on the IL, this figure represents the combined 2026 bWAR total of the four members of the Padres' Opening Day rotation not named Nick Pivetta.”

— Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Analyst

The takeaway

The Padres have a talented roster that should make them contenders, but their starting rotation outside of Nick Pivetta is a major concern that could prevent them from overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West. If the team's other starters can step up and provide reliable production, the Padres could be in for a deep postseason run, but that is far from a guarantee.