Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Surge in February

Homebuyers signed far more contracts to buy homes than expected, signaling a housing market comeback.

Mar. 17, 2026 at 3:19pm

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Pending home sales rose 1.8% in February, beating expectations for a 0.6% decline and snapping a three-month losing streak. The gain was driven by improved affordability as mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level since 2022, though higher oil prices could reverse that trend.

Why it matters

The housing market has been closely watched as a barometer of the broader economy. The unexpected surge in pending home sales suggests the housing sector may be staging a comeback after a period of affordability challenges.

The details

The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales, which cover contract signings rather than closings, rose 1.8% in February from the prior month. This beat the median economist forecast for a 0.6% decline. On a year-over-year basis, contract signings remained down 0.8%. The February data adds to a run of stronger-than-expected housing figures, with existing home sales and housing starts also beating expectations.

  • Pending home sales rose 1.8% in February 2026.
  • Mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level since 2022 during February 2026.
  • Mortgage rates jumped sharply in the first week of March 2026, their biggest weekly increase since September.

The players

National Association of Realtors

The trade association for real estate agents and brokers in the United States.

Lawrence Yun

Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors.

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What they’re saying

“The slight gain in pending contracts appears to be driven by improved affordability conditions. However, those conditions could reverse if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates.”

— Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist

What’s next

Whether February's affordability window translates into a sustained spring rebound may hinge on how oil markets and interest rates evolve in the weeks ahead.

The takeaway

The unexpected surge in pending home sales suggests the housing market may be staging a comeback, though the outlook remains uncertain as higher oil prices and mortgage rates could offset the recent affordability gains.