Men's March Madness Expert Predictions: Dark Horses, Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds, Title Winner

Sports Illustrated writers make their picks for the 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament

Mar. 17, 2026 at 11:27pm

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Ahead of the men's NCAA tournament First Four games tipping off, Sports Illustrated writers Pat Forde, Kevin Sweeney and Bryan Fischer sit down to predict what we'll see over the next three weeks of March Madness. They discuss their picks for National Player of the Year, Final Four and national championship, dark horse teams to watch, and the most vulnerable No. 1 seeds.

Why it matters

The NCAA men's basketball tournament is one of the most anticipated sporting events of the year, with millions of fans filling out brackets and following the action. These expert predictions provide valuable insights and analysis to help fans understand the key storylines and potential outcomes of this year's tournament.

The details

The writers make a strong case for Duke's Cameron Boozer as the National Player of the Year, citing his consistent production, high basketball IQ, and ability to control games. For the Final Four and national championship, they have Arizona, Michigan, Houston, and Duke making the Final Four, with Arizona ultimately winning the title. Some of the dark horse teams they highlight include St. John's, South Florida, and UCLA, while they see Florida as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed due to a potentially tough path. The writers also praise the style of play and entertainment value of mid-major teams like Saint Louis and Hofstra.

  • The men's NCAA tournament First Four games tip off on Tuesday night.
  • The writers made their predictions ahead of the tournament starting.

The players

Cameron Boozer

The Duke freshman is the writers' pick for National Player of the Year after a dominant season in which he averaged a 22-point, 10-rebound double-double.

Cooper Flagg

The Duke star from last season, who the writers say Boozer has surpassed in terms of legacy and impact.

Tommy Lloyd

The Gonzaga head coach, who the writers say Arizona's Tommy Lloyd would not relish facing in a potential regional final matchup.

Darius Acuff Jr.

The Arkansas guard who the writers believe could have a Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier-like impact on the tournament.

Yaxel Lendeborg

The Michigan player who was a national player of the year candidate earlier in the season.

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What they’re saying

“Kudos to Boozer for making this incredibly obvious and easy this season even amid a crowded field of future NBA draft lottery picks performing at a high level.”

— Kevin Sweeney, Sports Illustrated writer

“This season's crop of No. 1 seeds is strong, but I don't know that I see a repeat of last year's No. 1 sweep happening. Someone will create some chaos, and I'm predicting that Darius Acuff Jr. and the Razorbacks are the ones to create it by knocking off Arizona and Purdue.”

— Kevin Sweeney, Sports Illustrated writer

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This year's NCAA men's basketball tournament promises to be an exciting and unpredictable event, with a mix of dominant teams, dark horse contenders, and vulnerable No. 1 seeds. Fans will be closely watching to see if Cameron Boozer can lead Duke to the title, if Arizona can finally break through and win it all, and if any mid-major programs can pull off Cinderella runs.