2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology updates from Friday's conference tournament action

Bubble teams create headlines as the 68-team bracket takes shape ahead of Selection Sunday

Mar. 13, 2026 at 1:57pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to move closer to its final form as Selection Sunday approaches, with bid stealers in play to shake things up further. Entering the weekend, the top seed-lines are also up for grabs in the final stages of conference tournament action. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Why it matters

The NCAA Tournament is one of the most highly anticipated sporting events of the year, with millions of fans filling out brackets and following the action. Bracketology provides an early look at how the tournament field could shape up, giving fans a sense of which teams are on the bubble and which have a shot at a top seed.

The details

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

  • Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results.
  • Last updated at 10 am ET on 3/13.

The players

Duke

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after surviving a close postseason debut against Florida State. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

Iowa State

Iowa State jumps up to take Illinois' spot on the 2-seed line after a Big 12 Tournament win over Texas Tech. The Cyclones will now face Arizona with a chance to cement themselves on this line and take a shot at the conference title.

Florida

Florida picks up a win over Kentucky to close out the regular season, helping them jump UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

UConn

UConn suffered a loss against Marquette to close the regular season, dropping their grasp on the 1-seed line. Now, the Huskies must make a deep Big East Tournament run to get back into the mix for the top seed-line.

Michigan

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their final regular season game against Michigan State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

The takeaway

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to evolve as conference tournaments reach their climax, with teams fighting for the final spots in the 68-team field. Bracketology provides an early look at how the tournament field could shape up, giving fans a sense of which teams are on the bubble and which have a shot at a top seed.