2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology shifts as conference tournaments continue

Many bubble teams are already in action as top-seeded teams get underway in conference tournament play.

Mar. 12, 2026 at 12:54pm

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With many bubble teams already in action across Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday could prove a pivotal day for how things land on the NCAA Tournament cutline. In addition, many of the top-seeded teams in college basketball will get underway in conference tournament play. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Why it matters

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order.

The details

Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results. The projected 1-line includes Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida. The last four byes go to Santa Clara, NC State, UCF, and Texas. The last four in are Missouri, VCU, SMU, and Auburn. The first four out are New Mexico, SDSU, Indiana, and Oklahoma.

  • Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results.
  • Last updated at 9 am ET on 3/12.

The players

Duke

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a win over North Carolina to close the regular season. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

Illinois

Illinois remains on the 2-seed line after winning their final regular season game against Maryland. The Fighting Illini will then determine where they land in the bracket with the success of their Big Ten Tournament run.

Florida

Florida picks up a win over Kentucky to close out the regular season, helping them jump UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

UConn

UConn suffered a loss against Marquette to close the regular season, dropping their grasp on the 1-seed line. Now, the Huskies must make a deep Big East Tournament run to get back into the mix for the top seed-line.

Michigan

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their final regular season game against Michigan State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

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The takeaway

Bracketology continues to shift as conference tournaments get underway, with bubble teams and top-seeded programs alike jockeying for position in the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. The selection committee will have a clearer picture of the landscape after key results this week, setting the stage for an exciting Selection Sunday.