2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology changes as high-major conference tournaments begin

Bubble teams look to improve their chances at an at-large bid as conference tournaments get underway.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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Tuesday marks the start of high-major conference tournament action, with a handful of bubble teams looking to improve their chances at an at-large bid. Meanwhile, the WCC has increased its chance of securing three bids with an upset. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Why it matters

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order.

The details

Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3. Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results.

  • Tuesday marks the start of high-major conference tournament action.
  • Last updated at 10 am ET on 3/10.

The players

Duke

Remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a win over North Carolina to close the regular season. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

Illinois

Remains on the 2-seed line after winning their final regular season game against Maryland. The Fighting Illini will then determine where they land in the bracket with the success of their Big Ten Tournament run.

Florida

Picks up a win over Kentucky to close out the regular season, helping them jump UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

UConn

Suffered a loss against Marquette to close the regular season, dropping their grasp on the 1-seed line. Now, the Huskies must make a deep Big East Tournament run to get back into the mix for the top seed-line.

Michigan

Remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their final regular season game against Michigan State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

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What’s next

Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results.

The takeaway

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.