March Madness Bubble Watch: Last 4 In, First 4 Out Before Selection Sunday

We are one week away from finding out the men's March Madness bracket. Who is in? Who is out? Find out now.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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With the NCAA men's basketball tournament just a week away, the bubble teams are fighting for the final spots in the bracket. Sports writer Tyler Erzberger breaks down the last four teams he believes should get in, as well as the first four teams that just missed the cut.

Why it matters

The NCAA tournament is one of the most exciting events in sports, with millions of fans following the action and filling out brackets. Determining which teams make the tournament and which are left out is a major storyline in the lead-up to Selection Sunday, as schools and fans anxiously await their fate.

The details

Erzberger has VCU, Missouri, Stanford, and Santa Clara as the last four teams in the tournament, while Auburn, Indiana, California, and San Diego State are the first four teams out. He cites factors like record, conference performance, and advanced metrics in making his picks. Some of the bubble teams, like VCU and Stanford, have surged late in the season to put themselves in contention, while others like Auburn and Indiana have fallen short.

  • The NCAA men's basketball tournament begins next week with Selection Sunday on March 16, 2026.
  • Conference tournament play is happening this week leading up to Selection Sunday.

The players

AJ Dybansta

A BYU player who is expected to be a top NBA draft prospect.

Darryn Peterson

A Kansas player who is expected to be a top NBA draft prospect.

Boozer

A Duke player who is expected to be a top NBA draft prospect.

Steven Pearl

The head coach of the Auburn Tigers.

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What they’re saying

“Bye-bye, Tigers. This might be a controversial pick as KenPom and advanced metrics have them ranked above teams like the VCU Rams, but the 16-15 record, even in a difficult conference, isn't making the cut for me without some heavy lifting in the SEC tournament.”

— Tyler Erzberger, Sports Writer (Newsweek)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This bubble watch highlights the tough decisions the NCAA tournament selection committee faces each year, weighing factors like record, conference performance, and advanced analytics to determine the final at-large bids. For the teams on the bubble, their fate will be decided in the upcoming conference tournaments.