2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology sees first tickets punched for automatic bid

Many teams know exactly what they need to do with just one week left until Selection Sunday.

Published on Mar. 8, 2026

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Plenty of upsets have shifted bracketology from top to bottom as the regular season enters its final day and automatic bids start filtering in from mid-major conferences. The NCAA uses the NET Rankings to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March, and bracketology aims to predict how the committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Why it matters

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Bracketology provides an early look at the projected field and top seeds.

The details

Using the latest information, On3 has released another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field. The projected 1-line includes Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida. The last four byes go to NC State, Missouri, Texas, and Santa Clara, while the last four in are UCF, SMU, Indiana, and VCU. The first four out are Auburn, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, and Cincinnati.

  • The regular season enters its final day.
  • Selection Sunday is just one week away.

The players

Duke

Remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a win over North Carolina to close the regular season. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

Illinois

Remains on the 2-seed line entering their final regular season game against Maryland. The Fighting Illini will then determine where they land in the bracket with the success of their Big Ten Tournament run.

Florida

Picks up a win over Kentucky to close out the regular season, helping them jump UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

UConn

Suffered a loss against Marquette to close the regular season, dropping their grasp on the 1-seed line. Now, the Huskies must make a deep Big East Tournament run to get back into the mix for the top seed-line.

Michigan

Remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology ahead of their final regular season game against Michigan State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

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The takeaway

With just one week left until Selection Sunday, the 2026 NCAA Tournament field is starting to take shape. Teams on the bubble are creating headlines, while the top contenders are jockeying for position. Bracketology provides an early look at how the tournament could unfold, with Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida currently projected as the 1-seeds.