March Madness Bracketology: Teams Jockeying for NCAA Tournament Spots

With less than a week left in the regular season, bubble teams are fighting for at-large bids as conference tournaments loom.

Mar. 2, 2026 at 2:15pm

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As the college basketball regular season winds down, teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble are making their final push for at-large bids. Several bubble teams suffered surprising losses over the weekend, shaking up the projected bracket. Meanwhile, mid-major conference tournaments are getting underway, which could lead to some "bid stealers" emerging and further impacting the bubble picture. With Selection Sunday just around the corner, the race is on for teams to secure their spots in the Big Dance.

Why it matters

The final week of the regular season is crucial for bubble teams looking to secure an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. With conference tournaments right around the corner, teams need to make a strong final impression on the selection committee. Losses by teams like UCLA, Auburn, and others on the bubble have shaken up the projected field, creating more uncertainty and urgency for those squads on the cut line.

The details

Several bubble teams took surprising losses over the weekend, including Cal losing at home to Pittsburgh, UCLA falling on the road to Minnesota, and Auburn dropping a home game to Ole Miss. Just above the bubble, UCF, SMU, NC State, and Iowa also suffered unexpected defeats to teams near the bottom of their respective conferences. These results have significantly impacted the projected NCAA Tournament field, with teams like New Mexico and Ohio State moving into the field while others like Auburn and San Diego State have fallen out.

  • The college basketball regular season has less than one week remaining before conference tournament play begins.
  • Mid-major conference tournaments are already underway, which could lead to "bid stealers" emerging and further shaking up the bubble picture.
  • Selection Sunday, when the NCAA Tournament field is officially announced, is just a few weeks away.

The players

ClutchPoints

A leading sports media outlet that provides in-depth coverage and analysis of college basketball, including regular bracketology updates.

Troy Finnegan

The author of the ClutchPoints bracketology article, providing expert analysis on the state of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

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What they’re saying

“March is here! Less than a week remains in college basketball's regular season, and only a few at-large spots in the NCAA Tournament are up for grabs.”

— Troy Finnegan, Author

“Those bubble teams have a lot at stake, and they have a lot to prove and not a lot of time to prove it.”

— Troy Finnegan, Author

What’s next

As the regular season comes to a close, teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble will have one final opportunity to bolster their resumes in their respective conference tournaments. The results of those tournaments, as well as any potential "bid stealers," will further shape the field before Selection Sunday.

The takeaway

The final week of the college basketball regular season is a critical time for bubble teams looking to secure at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. With surprising losses by several bubble squads over the weekend, the race for the remaining tournament spots has become even more competitive and uncertain. Teams will need to make the most of their final regular season games and conference tournament appearances to prove their worthiness to the selection committee.