2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology changes after chaotic, upset-filled weekend

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The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket. As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order.

Why it matters

With just one week left for high-major conferences and a multitude of mid-major conference tournaments ready to tip off, bids are close to locking in. This bracketology update provides an early look at the projected 2026 NCAA Tournament field and how the top teams are positioned heading into the final stretch.

The details

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a win over Virginia. The Blue Devils look to close the regular season strong, with NC State next up on the schedule. Illinois returns to the 2-seed line as the margins between the final spot and the 3-seed contenders continues to shrink. The Fighting Illini are coming off a loss against Michigan and will face Oregon next. UConn continues to hold onto the final 1-seed spot as other teams continue to chase them down, even after beating Seton Hall. The Huskies will face Marquette in their final regular season game. Florida continues to make a leap up the board in bracketology, with a decisive win over Arkansas this weekend. The Gators are still within range of the 1-seed line as they look ahead at Mississippi State on the schedule. Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after beating Illinois. The Wolverines can continue to chase down the top spot when they face Iowa in their next matchup. Houston sits in a large debate over the final 2-seed spot, but is able to hold on after a big win over Colorado during the weekend slate. The Cougars will face Baylor next as they look to solidify this spot. Arizona remains in the mix with Duke and Michigan to land the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology, beating Kansas over the weekend. The Wildcats will face Iowa State next, with another chance to add to the resume. Purdue is coming off a loss against Michigan State which cost them on the overall seed-line but keeps them in the 2-seed range. They will face Ohio State next, then Northwestern before the next bracketology update.

• The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.
• With just one week left for high-major conferences and a multitude of mid-major conference tournaments ready to tip off, bids are close to locking in.