Padres Projected for Surprise Season in 2026

Despite low preseason projections, San Diego's roster could outperform expectations.

Published on Feb. 24, 2026

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The San Diego Padres are facing low preseason projections for the 2026 season, with FanGraphs and PECOTA forecasting the team to finish fourth in the NL West with 79-83 and 80-82 records respectively. The loss of key players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez, combined with poor projections for the remaining roster, have contributed to the pessimistic outlook. However, the Padres' core of Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado could surprise analysts if they avoid major regression.

Why it matters

The Padres are coming off a 90-win season in 2025 and were expected to be one of the top contenders in the NL West. The low projections for 2026 represent a significant step back and raise questions about the team's ability to keep pace with divisional rivals like the Dodgers and Giants. If the Padres can outperform these projections, it would be a major boost for the franchise and its fanbase.

The details

The Padres' projected struggles stem from a lack of power throughout the lineup and concerns about the starting rotation. No Padres position player is projected to have an fWAR above 5.4, with many in the 0.5-1.5 range. The starting pitching also faces doubts, with Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove and others projected for ERAs in the 3.68-3.92 range. The bullpen has limited upside as well, outside of Mason Miller.

  • The Padres finished the 2025 season with 90 wins.
  • Spring Training projections for the 2026 season were released in January 2026.

The players

Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres' star shortstop and one of the best players in baseball, projected to lead the team with 30 home runs.

Xander Bogaerts

The veteran infielder signed with the Padres in the offseason and will be counted on to provide production in the middle of the lineup.

Manny Machado

The Padres' third baseman and another key part of their core, though he is facing concerns about potential regression due to age.

Randy Vasquez

A young pitcher competing for the fifth spot in the Padres' rotation, facing a pivotal season as he is out of options.

A.J. Preller

The Padres' general manager, who has stated that shedding salary is not a priority this offseason.

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What’s next

The Padres will look to prove the projections wrong during the 2026 season, with key players like Tatis Jr., Bogaerts and Machado needing to avoid major regression. The team may also look to make additional roster moves before the start of the season to bolster the lineup and pitching staff.

The takeaway

Despite low preseason projections, the Padres have the potential to surprise in 2026 if their core players can perform at a high level and the team can get contributions from some of their younger or lesser-known players. The Padres' ability to outperform expectations could come down to the intangibles of heart and character that analytics-based projections may not fully capture.