San Diego State Clinging to NCAA Tournament Spot

Aztecs need win over Grand Canyon to secure at-large bid, expert says

Published on Feb. 19, 2026

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The San Diego State Aztecs are hanging on to the last at-large spot in the latest ESPN Bracketology projections, but a win over Grand Canyon on Tuesday would secure their place in the NCAA Tournament field, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

Why it matters

The Aztecs have made the NCAA Tournament for five straight seasons, and a sixth consecutive appearance would continue their strong run. However, their struggles in non-conference play have put their tournament hopes in jeopardy, making Tuesday's game against Grand Canyon a must-win.

The details

Lunardi has the Aztecs as the last team in the Field of 68 in his latest projection, dropping them one spot since Friday. He said a win over Grand Canyon, which handed SDSU a 70-69 defeat in January, would give the Aztecs the Mountain West's automatic bid and remove them from the at-large pool.

  • The Aztecs (18-6, 12-2 Mountain West) host Grand Canyon on Tuesday night.
  • SDSU played an exhibition game against UCLA at Viejas Arena on October 17, with the Bruins winning 67-60.

The players

Joe Lunardi

ESPN college basketball expert and Bracketology analyst.

San Diego State Aztecs

The men's basketball team at San Diego State University, who are clinging to an NCAA Tournament spot in the latest projections.

Grand Canyon Antelopes

The men's basketball team at Grand Canyon University, who defeated San Diego State 70-69 on January 21.

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What they’re saying

“A win over the Antelopes in a Mountain West showdown at Viejas Arena 'would give the Aztecs the MWC autobid and remove them from the at-large pool.'”

— Joe Lunardi, ESPN college basketball expert and Bracketology analyst (SI.com)

What’s next

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The takeaway

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