NOAA Forecasts El Niño Conditions by Hurricane Season

Shift from La Niña could impact weather patterns across the Lower 48 states.

Published on Feb. 17, 2026

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will warm over the next several months, marking a departure from the current La Niña conditions and a transition to El Niño by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.

Why it matters

El Niño and La Niña are major climate patterns that can significantly influence weather patterns across the United States, including temperature, precipitation, and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. This transition could bring changes to weather conditions in the Lower 48 states.

The details

Meteorologist Jonathan Belles explains that the shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions is expected to occur by the height of the 2026 hurricane season. La Niña typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, while El Niño can enhance it, leading to more frequent and potentially stronger storms.

  • NOAA is forecasting the transition from La Niña to El Niño over the next several months.
  • The shift to El Niño conditions is expected to occur by the peak of the 2026 hurricane season.

The players

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.

Jonathan Belles

A meteorologist who has analyzed the potential impacts of the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions.

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What they’re saying

“NOAA is now forecasting water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to warm over the next several months, marking a departure from La Niña to El Niño by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.”

— Jonathan Belles, Meteorologist (weather.com)

What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the development of El Niño conditions and the potential impacts on weather patterns across the United States.

The takeaway

The transition from La Niña to El Niño could bring significant changes to weather conditions in the Lower 48 states, including the potential for more frequent and intense hurricanes during the upcoming season.