San Diego State firmly on bubble in latest NCAA Tournament Bracketology

The Aztecs are the penultimate team in the field, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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The San Diego State Aztecs are still on the bubble in NCAA Tournament projections, but at least it's the right side of the bubble in the latest ESPN Bracketology projections. Bracket expert Joe Lunardi kept the Aztecs (17-6, 11-2 Mountain West) in the Last Four In in his Friday update, slotting them for a First Four date with Missouri with the winner getting the No. 11 seed in the West Region and a first-round matchup with No. 6 Clemson in Tampa.

Why it matters

The Aztecs were the unanimous preseason pick to win the MW regular-season title in their final season in the league before moving into the Pac-12, so their tournament hopes are crucial for the program. A rough non-conference schedule has hurt their at-large resume, meaning their best path to the Big Dance is to win the Mountain West tournament.

The details

Lunardi continues to project Utah State as the MW's automatic qualifier, with the Aggies as a No. 7 seed in the South Region. The Mountain West is down to a projected two-bid league after Lunardi dropped New Mexico from the Last Four In to the Last Four Out.

  • The Aztecs haven't played since an 88-54 win at Air Force on Saturday night.
  • SDSU returns to action Saturday night at home against Nevada, seeking a season series victory.

The players

Joe Lunardi

ESPN's bracket expert who keeps the Aztecs in the Last Four In in his latest NCAA Tournament projections.

Utah State Aggies

Lunardi projects the Aggies as the Mountain West's automatic qualifier and a No. 7 seed in the South Region.

New Mexico Lobos

Lunardi has dropped the Lobos from the Last Four In to the Last Four Out in his latest bracket.

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What’s next

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The takeaway

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