USAF Needs 200 B-21s, 300 F-47s for War with China, Report Says

Air Force Academy study recommends major increases to planned procurement of next-gen bomber and fighter aircraft.

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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A new report from the USAF Academy's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies says the US Air Force needs to significantly increase planned procurements of the B-21 next-generation bomber and the F-47 sixth-generation fighter to be prepared for a potential conflict with China. The report recommends the USAF acquire at least 200 B-21s and around 300 F-47s, far exceeding the service's current plans.

Why it matters

The report argues the USAF's current combat force mix is too heavily weighted toward earlier-generation non-stealthy aircraft, which would struggle to effectively penetrate and hold targets at depth within China during a major conflict. Acquiring larger fleets of the stealthy B-21 and F-47 is seen as critical to maintaining the US military's ability to deny China sanctuary and strike key targets deep inside the country.

The details

According to the study, the USAF currently plans to buy 'at least' 100 B-21s and 185 F-47s, numbers the report says are insufficient to sustain pressure in a broader conflict. The authors argue at least 200 B-21s and around 300 F-47s would be required for a credible 'sanctuary-denial' posture, factoring in combat attrition, maintenance cycles, and the need to dedicate portions of the bomber force to nuclear deterrence missions.

  • The B-21 Raider is expected to enter service in the mid-2020s.
  • The first F-47 fighter is now being built by Boeing, with an initial flight planned for 2028.

The players

Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies

A research institute at the US Air Force Academy that produced the report recommending increased B-21 and F-47 procurement.

Northrop Grumman

The manufacturer of the B-21 Raider next-generation bomber under contract with the US Air Force.

Boeing

The manufacturer selected to develop the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet for the US Air Force.

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What they’re saying

“F-47s operating with B-21s and other aircraft in the Air Force long-range strike family can be [the Pentagon's] 'sanctuary denial force.”

— Heather Penney, Report Co-Author

“The service's current combat force mix is now weighted toward earlier-generation non-stealthy bombers and fighters... If not modernised with the right quantities of next-generation stealthy aircraft, this legacy force would have to close thousands of long-range kill chains in hundreds of hours in a peer conflict, a feat that is beyond the Air Force's current and projected capacity.”

— Heather Penney, Report Co-Author

What’s next

The US Air Force will need to determine how to accelerate procurement of the B-21 Raider and F-47 fighter to meet the force structure recommended in the report, likely requiring additional funding and production capacity.

The takeaway

This report highlights the US military's growing concern about the need to rapidly modernize its air power capabilities, particularly long-range strike and air superiority assets, to deter and if necessary defeat a rising China. Acquiring sufficient quantities of the B-21 and F-47 is seen as critical to maintaining America's military edge in the Pacific.