UCSD Scientists Create Dashboard to Predict Disease Outbreaks

New platform aims to translate academic disease forecasting into practical recommendations for policymakers.

Jan. 30, 2026 at 10:39am

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Researchers at the University of California San Diego have developed a new interactive platform called the Disease Incidence and Resource Estimator (DIRE) that uses analytics to predict where dengue fever and malaria outbreaks are likely to occur in Brazil and Peru, as well as the types of health resources that may be needed to control and treat them. The goal is to provide governments and policymakers with data-driven insights to help them prepare for and respond to potential disease outbreaks.

Why it matters

Climate change, deforestation, and other environmental factors are contributing to more frequent and dangerous outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and malaria, especially in vulnerable populations. DIRE aims to give governments and health agencies the ability to anticipate and plan for these outbreaks, rather than just reacting to them.

The details

DIRE uses machine learning models to forecast dengue and malaria cases and resource needs in specific locations in Brazil and Peru. The interactive map allows users to see past reported cases and projections for the current month and next two months, as well as areas where predictions are less certain. The platform also estimates the number of vaccines, fumigation kits, and other resources that will be needed to respond to the predicted outbreaks.

  • DIRE is currently in a soft launch phase.
  • In 2025, Peru reported 39,000 dengue cases, with a substantial proportion affecting children.

The players

UC San Diego

The university behind the development of the DIRE platform.

Gordon McCord

Associate teaching professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, who led the DIRE project.

Carlos Orlando Zegarra Zamalloa

Health specialist at the UNICEF Peru office, who highlighted the growing challenge of climate-related disease outbreaks in Peru.

Wellcome Trust

A UK-based global health philanthropy that provided a grant to develop the DIRE platform.

New Light Technologies

A company that collaborated with UC San Diego to create the DIRE platform.

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What they’re saying

“This project is about getting academic breakthroughs off the shelf and into the hands of the people making decisions. We took machine-learning models that predict dengue and turned them into something governments can actually use -- so they can plan ahead and act before cases spike.”

— Gordon McCord, Associate teaching professor, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy (nbcsandiego.com)

“Climate-related outbreaks like dengue and malaria are becoming more frequent and dangerous in Peru, especially for children and pregnant women. In 2025 alone, Peru reported 39,000 dengue cases, with a substantial proportion affected being children; the scale has been overwhelming the current capacity of governments and communities to respond effectively.”

— Carlos Orlando Zegarra Zamalloa, Health specialist, UNICEF Peru office (nbcsandiego.com)

What’s next

DIRE is currently in a soft launch phase, with the initial focus on Brazil and Peru. The team plans to expand the platform to additional regions and health threats in the future.

The takeaway

By providing governments and health agencies with data-driven insights on potential disease outbreaks, the DIRE platform aims to help them shift from reactive to proactive disease management, allowing them to better prepare for and respond to the growing threat of climate-related infectious diseases.