California Governor's Race Simulator Shows 2 Republicans Likely Advancing Through Primary

New tool predicts a Republican-versus-Republican runoff is 12% likely in heavily Democratic state

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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With a crowded field of candidates and no clear frontrunner in California's 2026 governor's race, a new simulation tool shows two Republicans, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, currently leading in the polls. This raises the possibility of a Republican-versus-Republican runoff, which political strategist Rob Stutzman warns would likely not end well for the GOP in the heavily Democratic state.

Why it matters

California is a Democratic stronghold, so the prospect of two Republicans advancing to the general election in the governor's race is highly unusual and could have significant implications. A Republican-only runoff could galvanize Democrats to mount a recall effort, similar to the successful recall of former Governor Gavin Newsom.

The details

The simulation tool, called TWINS, was created by Democrat data expert Paul Mitchell, who also helped draw congressional redistricting lines. It shows a 12% chance of a Republican-versus-Republican runoff as of now, with the large field of nine Democratic candidates fracturing their own support. Republican strategist Rob Stutzman cautioned that such an outcome would likely prompt a Democratic-led recall effort against the eventual Republican nominee.

  • The next key date in the race is March 6, which is the deadline for candidates to add or drop their names from the ballot.

The players

Paul Mitchell

A Democrat data expert who created the TWINS simulation tool and also helped draw Proposition 50 congressional redistricting lines.

Rob Stutzman

A Republican strategist who warned that a Republican-only runoff would likely not end well for the GOP in the heavily Democratic state.

Chad Bianco

One of the two leading Republican candidates in the California governor's race, according to the simulation.

Steve Hilton

The other leading Republican candidate in the California governor's race, according to the simulation.

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What they’re saying

“I mean, if you ask any of the gubernatorial candidates, they'll tell you, a lot of their supporters come to them and say, 'Oh my gosh, can two Republicans make the runoff?' It's kind of the biggest parlor game in Sacramento right now, is people predicting what's going happen.”

— Paul Mitchell, Democrat data expert (cbsnews.com)

“My caution to Republicans though on that is we should then expect that governor to be immediately recalled. Democrats who are still a 2-1 majority. Most will say this is a fluke. Trump's still president. We need to resist him, and I think you'd see a recall that would be very similar to the Prop. 50.”

— Rob Stutzman, Republican strategist (cbsnews.com)

What’s next

The next big day in this race is March 6, which is the deadline for candidates to add or drop their names from the ballot.

The takeaway

The possibility of a Republican-versus-Republican runoff in California's heavily Democratic governor's race highlights the fractured nature of the Democratic field and the potential for unexpected outcomes in high-profile elections. However, such an outcome could also galvanize Democrats to mount a recall effort, underscoring the challenges Republicans would face in holding onto the governorship in this political climate.