California Cities See Lowest Homicide Rates in Decades

Reasons for the decline remain unclear, though pandemic disruptions may have played a role

Feb. 9, 2026 at 6:47pm

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For the second year in a row, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is celebrating the state's declining homicide rate, with cities like Oakland, Los Angeles, and San Francisco seeing their lowest numbers in decades. However, the reasons behind this trend are not entirely clear, with experts citing factors like pandemic-related disruptions to government services and a drop in police clearance rates as potential contributors. The homicide rate nationwide has also been declining, though inconsistencies in crime data reporting make it difficult to pinpoint the exact causes.

Why it matters

The drop in homicide rates in California is significant, as it represents a reversal of the spike seen during the early days of the pandemic. Understanding the factors behind this decline could inform policies and strategies to further reduce violent crime in the state. However, the inconsistencies in crime data reporting make it challenging to fully analyze the trends and their underlying causes.

The details

After a surge in homicides during the pandemic, the numbers have been steadily declining in California since 2022. In 2024, the state's homicide rate was down to 4.3 per 100,000 people, a level not seen since the state had half its current population. The drop has been particularly pronounced in cities like Oakland, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. However, the reasons for this decline are not entirely clear. Experts suggest that pandemic-related disruptions to government services, community programs, and police operations may have contributed to the initial spike, and the subsequent return to more normal conditions could be a factor in the decline. Additionally, the percentage of homicide cases cleared by police, which had fallen during the pandemic, has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.

  • In 2020, the homicide rate in California surged by 31% to 5.5 homicides per 100,000 people.
  • In 2021, the homicide rate rose again, to about 6 per 100,000 people.
  • In 2022, the number of homicides dropped by 7%.
  • In 2023, the homicide rate dropped by 14%.
  • In 2024, the homicide rate dropped by another 12%, reaching 4.3 per 100,000 people.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The governor of California, who has been celebrating the state's declining homicide rate.

Barbara Lee

The mayor of Oakland, where homicides dropped from 134 in 2021 to 67 in 2025, the lowest level since 1967.

Magnus Lofstrom

The policy director of criminal justice at the nonpartisan think tank the Public Policy Institute of California, who has analyzed the factors behind the homicide rate changes.

Shani Buggs

An associate professor at UC Davis and public health researcher, who has studied the factors behind the nationwide decline in homicide rates.

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What they’re saying

“California cities are seeing record-low homicide rates. Oakland, the lowest since 1967; LA, the lowest since 1966; and San Francisco, the lowest since 1954.”

— Gavin Newsom, Governor of California

“What we see now in the data up to 2024 is that we're back up over 64% for homicide clearances.”

— Magnus Lofstrom, Policy director of criminal justice, Public Policy Institute of California

“We do not have reliable, multi-sector data or comparable contextual information available across jurisdictions to definitively identify — now or perhaps ever — what drove these declines.”

— Shani Buggs, Associate professor, UC Davis

What’s next

The California Department of Justice is expected to release updated homicide data for 2025 in the coming months, which could provide more insight into the continued decline in homicide rates across the state.

The takeaway

The drop in homicide rates in California's major cities is a significant development, but the underlying reasons remain elusive. Inconsistencies in crime data reporting and the multifaceted nature of the factors driving these trends make it challenging to pinpoint the exact causes. However, the reversal of the pandemic-era spike and the return to historically low homicide levels is a positive sign, even if the path forward is not entirely clear.