California's Existential Issues Deter Potential Gubernatorial Candidates

Unsolved problems like high costs, homelessness, and water scarcity make the governor's race unappealing for some top contenders.

Jan. 28, 2026 at 8:07am

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California faces a number of persistent and intertwined existential issues, including high living costs, poverty, homelessness, housing shortages, uncertain water supply, and poor public education outcomes. These challenges have defied resolution for decades, and may be deterring some high-profile potential candidates from running for governor in 2026 when Gavin Newsom is expected to vacate the office to run for president.

Why it matters

California's unresolved crises threaten the state's future economic and social wellbeing, yet forging political consensus to address them has proven extremely difficult. The next governor will inherit these daunting issues, and some potential candidates may have decided the likelihood of failure is too high to take on the job.

The details

Several politicians who were seen as potential frontrunners for the 2026 California governor's race, including Kamala Harris, Rob Bonta, Alex Padilla, and Rick Caruso, have opted not to run. Observers speculate these individuals may have been deterred by the scale and complexity of the state's problems, which include high costs of living, homelessness, housing shortages, water supply issues, and underperforming public schools. The remaining candidates are seen as second-tier, with no clear favorite emerging so far. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is the latest to express interest, criticizing the 'business as usual' approach in Sacramento and calling for bold, independent leadership to tackle the crises.

  • Gavin Newsom will vacate the governor's office in 2027, a year from now.
  • The California gubernatorial primary election is scheduled for June 2026.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The current governor of California, who is expected to run for president in 2027 rather than seek re-election as governor.

Kamala Harris

A former U.S. Vice President who was seen as a potential candidate for California governor but decided not to run.

Rob Bonta

The California Attorney General who initially considered running for governor but ultimately decided to seek re-election instead.

Alex Padilla

A U.S. Senator from California who was viewed as a potential gubernatorial candidate but chose not to run.

Rick Caruso

A Los Angeles businessman who ran for mayor in 2022 and was considering a run for governor, but ultimately decided against it.

Matt Mahan

The Democratic mayor of San Jose who has emerged as a potential late entrant in the 2026 California governor's race, criticizing the 'business as usual' approach in Sacramento.

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What they’re saying

“Though my name will not be on a ballot, my work continues. Public service does not require a title. It is, and always will be, my calling.”

— Rick Caruso

“I see business as usual in Sacramento. I don't see anyone acting like it's a crisis.”

— Matt Mahan, Mayor of San Jose

What’s next

The California gubernatorial primary election is scheduled for June 2026, with the general election to follow in November. As the race continues to take shape, voters will be watching to see if any of the candidates are able to articulate a clear and compelling vision for addressing the state's long-standing crises.

The takeaway

California's persistent and intertwined existential issues, including high costs of living, homelessness, housing shortages, water scarcity, and underperforming public schools, have deterred some high-profile potential candidates from running for governor. The next occupant of the state's top office will inherit these daunting challenges, which have defied resolution for decades, raising questions about whether any of the current contenders have the bold and independent leadership needed to tackle them.