Swalwell Surges in California Governor's Race, but Republican Candidate Still Leads

A new poll shows a shake-up in the race, with a Democratic candidate taking over the number two spot.

Published on Feb. 23, 2026

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A new poll from Emerson College/Inside California Politics shows a shift in the California governor's race, with Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell now leading the Democratic pack, while on the Republican side, Fox News contributor Steve Hilton has pulled ahead of Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. However, a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, which could still upend the contest.

Why it matters

The California governor's race is a high-stakes contest, as the state's next leader will face a range of challenges, from the economy to the ongoing effects of the pandemic. The poll results suggest a fluid and competitive race, with both parties vying for the top spot.

The details

According to the poll, Hilton garnered support from 17% of respondents, while Swalwell came in at 14%, tied with Bianco. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) came in third place with 10% support, a drop from her previous standing. Billionaire leftist Tom Steyer saw a surge in support, doubling his numbers from two months ago to 9%. However, a significant portion of the electorate, 21%, remains undecided.

  • The poll was conducted in February 2026.

The players

Eric Swalwell

A Democratic congressman who is now leading the Democratic pack in the California governor's race.

Steve Hilton

A Fox News contributor who has pulled ahead of Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco in the Republican field.

Chad Bianco

The Riverside Sheriff who has been criticized by Hilton for kneeling with protesters during the Black Lives Matter demonstrations and for skipping a gubernatorial debate.

Katie Porter

A former Democratic congresswoman who came in third place in the poll, but has seen a drop in support due to reports of her harassing staff and damaging accusations from her ex-husband.

Tom Steyer

A billionaire leftist who saw a surge in support, more than doubling his numbers from two months ago, but still came in fourth place.

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What they’re saying

“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38%) and Chad Bianco (37%), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22%.”

— Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling executive director (Emerson College/Inside California Politics)

“Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate: 23% of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% Steyer and 22% are undecided.”

— Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling executive director (Emerson College/Inside California Politics)

The takeaway

The California governor's race remains highly competitive, with both parties vying for the top spot. The poll results suggest a fluid and unpredictable contest, with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided. The outcome of the race could have significant implications for the state's future.