California's Population Growth Slows, Diversity Remains

PPIC report finds state has no single racial or ethnic majority group

Jan. 28, 2026 at 11:07am

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A new report from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows that California's population growth has slowed to historic lows, but the state remains one of the most diverse in the nation, with no single racial or ethnic group making up a majority. The state's population totaled 39.5 million as of July 2025, and is projected to rise modestly to 39.7 million by 2030 and 40.5 million by 2040, marking a sharp contrast with the rapid expansion that defined much of the 20th century.

Why it matters

The report's findings have significant implications for California's political representation, as continued sluggish growth could lead to the state losing up to four congressional seats in the 2030 reapportionment. The state's demographic changes also highlight the ongoing shifts in the state's racial and ethnic makeup.

The details

California has experienced its slowest sustained growth rates on record since 2000, with the state's population increasing by only 5.8% between 2010 and 2020, below the national growth rate of 6.8%. The COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted population trends, leading to a loss of 322,000 residents between July 2020 and July 2022, driven primarily by a surge in people moving to other states. However, since mid-2022, the state has shown signs of recovery, adding 309,000 residents between July 2022 and July 2025.

  • As of July 2025, California's population totaled 39.5 million.
  • The California Department of Finance projects the population will rise to 39.7 million by 2030 and 40.5 million by 2040.
  • Between 2010 and 2020, the state's population increased by 5.8%.
  • Between July 2020 and July 2022, California lost 322,000 residents.
  • Between July 2022 and July 2025, California added 309,000 residents.

The players

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)

A nonpartisan think tank that conducts research on a variety of policy issues in California.

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What’s next

The report's findings suggest that continued sluggish growth could reshape California's political representation, with the state potentially losing up to four congressional seats in the 2030 reapportionment if current trends continue.

The takeaway

Despite slower population growth, California remains one of the most diverse states in the nation, with no single racial or ethnic group making up a majority. However, the state's demographic changes and political implications will continue to be an important issue to monitor in the coming years.