JPMorgan Predicts 60% Plunge in Tesla Stock Amid Surging Unsold Inventory

Analysts cite record inventory buildup and weakening deliveries as key factors behind bearish forecast.

Apr. 6, 2026 at 6:04pm

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A highly detailed, photorealistic studio photograph of a sleek, metallic Tesla car key floating against a clean, monochromatic background, conveying a sense of corporate risk and financial uncertainty.A Tesla key adrift in a sea of uncertainty, as the automaker grapples with a surge in unsold inventory and an uncertain future.Palo Alto Today

JPMorgan analysts have issued a dire warning for Tesla investors, predicting the electric vehicle maker's stock could plummet 60% by the end of the year. The bank cites a record surge in unsold Tesla vehicles and weakening delivery numbers as the primary drivers behind its 'Underweight' rating and $145 price target for the stock.

Why it matters

Tesla's soaring stock price has become increasingly disconnected from its recent operational performance, with investors pinning hopes on future initiatives like robotaxis and humanoid robotics. However, JPMorgan believes this optimism is misplaced, as the company's production has outpaced sales, leading to a worrying inventory buildup that could undermine the stock's valuation.

The details

According to JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, Tesla produced over 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered in the first quarter of 2026, marking the largest inventory build-up in the company's history. This surge in unsold cars, combined with a 15% year-over-year decline in sales, has led the bank to forecast a 60% drop in Tesla's stock price by the end of the year, from current levels.

  • Tesla reported first-quarter 2026 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles, 4% below analyst consensus and 7% lower than JPMorgan's forecast of 385,000.
  • JPMorgan issued its 'Underweight' rating and $145 price target for Tesla stock on April 6, 2026.

The players

JPMorgan

A global financial services firm that provides investment banking, asset and wealth management, and commercial banking services.

Ryan Brinkman

An analyst at JPMorgan who covers the automotive industry and has issued a bearish forecast for Tesla's stock.

Tesla

An American electric vehicle and clean energy company that designs and manufactures electric cars, energy storage products, and related products.

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What they’re saying

“Record surge in unsold vehicles adds to free cash flow woes. Tesla produced +50,363 more vehicles than it delivered in 1Q26, signifying a larger inventory build than in any prior quarter.”

— Ryan Brinkman, Analyst

“With expectations for Tesla performance having collapsed for all financial and performance metrics across all time periods through the end of the decade, the +50% rise in TSLA shares and +32% increase in analyst price targets as this collapse has taken place implies an expectation for a sharp pivot to materially better than earlier expected performance in the time beyond this decade.”

— Ryan Brinkman, Analyst

What’s next

JPMorgan's bearish forecast on Tesla stock is likely to be closely watched by investors, as the bank's analysis could influence broader market sentiment and trading activity around the electric vehicle maker's shares.

The takeaway

JPMorgan's warning highlights the growing disconnect between Tesla's stock price and its underlying operational performance, as the company struggles with a surge in unsold inventory and weakening delivery numbers. This raises questions about the sustainability of the stock's recent rally and the viability of the company's long-term growth plans.