California 'Jungle' Primary Could Hand Governor's Race to Republicans

Polling shows GOP candidates leading in a crowded Democratic field, raising concerns about a Republican victory in the heavily blue state.

Mar. 27, 2026 at 9:07am

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Polling shows Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading the pack in California's nonpartisan primary for governor, while eight Democrats split the liberal vote. Experts say the state's unusual 'jungle primary' system, where the top two finishers advance regardless of party, could hand the race to the GOP despite Democrats' 2-to-1 voter registration advantage.

Why it matters

A Republican victory in California would be a major upset, as the state has been a Democratic stronghold for years. It would also mark a significant shift in the political landscape, with the nation's most populous state potentially electing a conservative governor who opposes much of the Democratic agenda.

The details

The Berkeley ISG survey released March 18 showed Hilton, a conservative TV host, receiving 17% of the vote, while Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, held 16%. In third was Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, with 14%, then former Rep. Katie Porter holding 13%, followed by Tom Steyer at 10% and five other Democratic candidates each getting 5% or less. Other polls have shown a similar trend, with the two GOP candidates leading the pack.

  • The nonpartisan primary election in California is scheduled for June 2, 2026.
  • The general election will be held in November 2026.

The players

Steve Hilton

A conservative TV host who is leading the Republican field in the California governor's race.

Chad Bianco

The Riverside County sheriff who is also leading the Republican field in the California governor's race.

Eric Swalwell

A Democratic congressman who is currently in third place in the California governor's race.

Katie Porter

A former Democratic congresswoman who is currently in fourth place in the California governor's race.

Tom Steyer

A Democratic candidate who is currently in fifth place in the California governor's race.

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What they’re saying

“I think realistically you need about $30 million to put on an effective campaign in California, and if you can't raise that, you should step aside. California always votes Democrat, no matter what. We just need to know who the candidate is.”

— Rick De Alba, Workers' compensation rights attorney

“I think that you can look at California and see what a mess it is. Look at who's been running it for the last few years. I am going to start seriously looking at the two Republicans. It would be a nice change of pace.”

— Bud Thompson, 61-year-old state government employee

What’s next

The top two finishers in the June 2 primary will advance to the November general election, where the winner will be determined.

The takeaway

The California governor's race highlights the potential for a Republican upset in a heavily Democratic state, raising concerns about the impact of the state's 'jungle primary' system and the party's inability to coalesce around a frontrunner. The outcome could have significant implications for the national political landscape.