Obesity Projected to Affect Nearly Half of US Adults by 2035

New study warns of dramatic rise in obesity rates, with disparities deepening across race and geography

Jan. 28, 2026 at 5:07pm

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A sobering new study published in JAMA predicts that by 2035, nearly half of all U.S. adults - a staggering 126 million people - will be living with obesity. The research, drawing on data from over 11 million individuals, reveals a dramatic acceleration of a trend already decades in the making, with obesity rates projected to climb from 19.3% in 1990 to 46.9% by 2035.

Why it matters

Obesity is a major risk factor for heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, certain cancers, and a host of other serious health problems. The economic burden of obesity-related healthcare costs is already substantial, and projected to increase exponentially. The crisis is unfolding unevenly, with significant disparities based on state, age, race, and ethnicity.

The details

The study highlights that while every state is expected to see an increase in obesity rates, the Midwest and South are projected to experience the most significant surges. Nationally, the projections are particularly concerning for women of color, with 60% of Black women and 54% of Latina women estimated to be obese by 2035, compared to 47% of White women. Among men, 48% of Latino men and 43% of Black men are projected to be obese, versus 45% of White men.

  • In 1990, just 19.3% of American adults were classified as obese.
  • By 2022, the obesity rate had more than doubled to 42.5%.
  • The study forecasts a further climb to 46.9% by 2035.

The players

JAMA

A prestigious medical journal that published the study on the projected rise in obesity rates.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

The agency that provided data on obesity trends used in the study.

Gallup

The polling organization that also contributed data to the study.

Dr. Amanda Velazquez

The director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital who emphasizes the role of systemic inequalities in driving the obesity epidemic.

California

The state that is projected to fare somewhat better than the national average in terms of obesity rate increases, but still faces significant disparities within the state.

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What they’re saying

“Economic instability, chronic stress, and car-dependency – particularly in cities like Los Angeles – create significant challenges for accessing nutritious foods and maintaining a healthy lifestyle.”

— Dr. Amanda Velazquez, Director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital

“To take that away is devastating.”

— Dr. Amanda Velazquez, Director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital

What’s next

Experts advocate for strengthening school nutrition standards, expanding transportation infrastructure to encourage walking and cycling, maintaining and expanding economic disincentives to unhealthy foods, and addressing food deserts by incentivizing grocery stores and farmers' markets in underserved communities. Targeted interventions that address the specific challenges faced by Black and Latino communities are essential.

The takeaway

The obesity epidemic in the US is a complex, multifaceted issue that requires a comprehensive, equitable approach to address the root causes and disparities. Policymakers, healthcare providers, and communities must work together to implement evidence-based solutions that promote healthy lifestyles and ensure access to affordable, nutritious food and safe spaces for physical activity.