Winter Storms Threaten to Spike Gas Prices After Iran War Impact

Geopolitics and weather create a volatile mix for consumers at the pump

Apr. 12, 2026 at 8:09pm

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An abstract illustration featuring overlapping triangles and circles in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conceptually representing the volatility and interconnectedness of gas prices, geopolitics, and winter storms.As geopolitical risks and extreme weather create an unstable energy landscape, consumers brace for unpredictable price swings at the pump.Novato Today

A recent wave of winter storms in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions is threatening to further spike gas prices, which have already risen due to the impact of the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Experts say the combination of geopolitical tensions and severe weather is creating a fragile balance in the energy supply chain, leading to unpredictable price fluctuations at the pump.

Why it matters

The interplay between global events and local weather patterns highlights the systemic fragility of the modern energy system. As climate change brings more extreme weather, policymakers and industry leaders will need to prioritize investments in storage, logistics, and transparent communication to help consumers weather the volatility.

The details

The national average gas price has risen from around $3.32 per gallon a week ago to about $3.63 per gallon as of mid-March 2026. Experts say this spike is not just about crude oil prices, but also reflects risk premiums embedded in futures, refinery margins, and volatility hedges. The threat of winter storms complicating trucking, rail, and shipping logistics is adding further pressure, as the system is already strained by the geopolitical tensions with Iran.

  • In January-February 2026, East Coast snowstorms pushed the national average toward the mid-$2.80s after a brief spike, with a cautious rebound a month later.
  • In December 2022, Midwest/Great Lakes/New England storms caused prices to fall after the storm but rise again a month out as demand and distribution normalized.
  • In March 2021 and January 2016, prices stabilized or even dipped briefly post-storm before a modest, sustained uptick as refineries and routes re-optimized.

The players

Geopolitical Tensions

The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has disrupted oil supplies and created uncertainty in global energy markets.

Winter Storms

Severe winter weather in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, which is threatening to disrupt transportation and logistics in the energy supply chain.

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What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.