Khamenei's Death Leaves Power Vacuum in Iran, IRGC Poised to Fill It

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is likely to wield significant influence in Iran's leadership transition.

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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The U.S.-Israeli attack that ended Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rule of Iran has created a power vacuum, with a group of clerics convening to choose his successor. However, the real power is expected to lie with the heavily-armed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which propped up Khamenei for decades. Experts say that even if a new supreme leader is chosen, the IRGC will be the 'last vestige remaining of the regime' and the ones in charge of Iran going forward.

Why it matters

Khamenei's death marks a significant shift in Iran's power structure, with the IRGC poised to wield significant influence over the country's future leadership and direction. This could have major implications for Iran's regional policies, its relationship with the West, and the stability of the Iranian regime.

The details

The IRGC is a powerful military force that has been a key pillar of support for the Iranian regime. Even if a new supreme leader is chosen from among the clerics, the IRGC is expected to be the real power center, with its heavily-armed forces and control over large segments of the Iranian economy. Experts say the IRGC is likely to be the 'last vestige remaining of the regime' until it is either overhauled from within or toppled by external forces.

  • Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli attack on March 4, 2026.

The players

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The former supreme leader of Iran, who ruled the country with an iron fist for decades until his death in 2026.

Mojtaba Khamenei

The second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is considered a front-runner to succeed his father as Iran's next supreme leader.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

A powerful military force that has been a key pillar of support for the Iranian regime and is expected to wield significant influence over Iran's future leadership.

Afshon Ostovar

An Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School in California and the author of 'Vanguard of the Imam,' a history of the Revolutionary Guards.

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What they’re saying

“Even if they replace the supreme leader, what is left of the regime is the IRGC. And the IRGC is going to be the last vestige remaining of the regime until the regime is overhauled, either within itself or by external forces.”

— Afshon Ostovar, Iran expert

The takeaway

Khamenei's death has created a power vacuum in Iran, and the heavily-armed IRGC is poised to fill that void and wield significant influence over the country's future leadership and direction. This could have major implications for Iran's regional policies, its relationship with the West, and the stability of the Iranian regime.